It was a moment millions of Syrians thought they could no longer hope for. In a matter of days, rebel forces swept out of the north-western corner of the country in which they had been crammed, into the city of Aleppo and beyond.
The dominant power in the rebel coalition is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a militia which began in 2011 as an offshoot of al-Qaeda, but which has since purged its most extreme elements and greatly moderated. With at least 20,000 members, it’s still an authoritarian Islamist organisation, but is not at all “like Isis”, as some observers are claiming. HTS doesn’t field a “religious police” to interfere in people’s private lives, and it has a far more tolerant approach to religious minorities and dissent than Islamic State. It isn’t popular with the people in the areas it operates – at least it wasn’t until 27 November when the offensive was launched. People have protested its authoritarianism for months. Unlike the regime of Bashar al-Assad, HTS has largely tolerated these protests. But even if Syrians don’t like HTS, they do support the offensive. That’s because they wish to return to their hometowns and cities after Assad and his allies expelled them years ago.
At first the rebel offensive looked like a limited operation, perhaps agreed between Turkey and Russia to force Assad to negotiate. But as the regime lines collapsed and the rebels entered Aleppo, pushing Iran’s militias out and liberating prisoners from Assad’s dungeons, it soon became clear that events had slipped out of foreign control. This is primarily a Syrian drama, reflecting both rebel success and regime failure.
The rebel coalition – the largest factions after HTS are Ahrar al-Sham and Jaysh al-Azza– contains unified military forces operating much more efficiently and professionally than ever before. Tight operational security kept preparations for the attack on Aleppo secret, and the combined arms assault was well-coordinated when it came. Even more impressive than the military improvements is the obvious social progress. Rebel messaging to the inhabitants of Aleppo has stressed respect for the rights and lifestyles of all religions and sects. So far, this has been backed up in practice. Unveiled women walk the streets without harassment, and services are held in churches. The rebels have even set up a phone line through which citizens can report violations, such as violence or harassment, by the rebels. It is important civil revolutionaries continue to hold the rebels to the high standards they seem to have set for themselves. It was a mistake, a decade ago, to ignore the growing criminality of rebel groups, which did so much damage to the revolutionary cause.
For now, very unusually, electricity is on in the whole city. Public buildings are being guarded from looters. The rebels already look something like a government, in stark contrast to Assad’s regime, a narco-mafia underpinned by local warlords and foreign imperialists.
But why is the regime collapsing now rather than last year? When Assad clawed back Aleppo from the revolution forces in 2016, 80 per cent of his ground forces were foreign Shia militias organised by Iran, and his air force was Russian. Today, Iran’s regional militia system has been decimated by Israel and Russia is preoccupied with its assault on Ukraine. In these conditions, the unsustainability of the Assad regime becomes glaringly apparent. The economy cratered years ago, largely as a result of the regime’s destruction of the national infrastructure and its expulsion of over half the country’s population. This means that even many of the hitherto loyalist communities are now desperate for change.
Enormous challenges certainly lie ahead. Russian and Assadist revenge bombardment of civilian neighbourhoods is under way, and intensifying. It was such scorched earth tactics against liberated areas which caused a refugee crisis, and opened the way for Islamic State, a decade ago.
Rebel abuses of civilians may yet escalate. Also joining the fight are the Syrian National Army (SNA) – remnants of the Free Syrian Army but now under Turkish control – which are more secular than the troops currently in control of Aleppo, but also far less disciplined. Turkey belatedly gave them permission to move, but so far only in the Tel Rifaat area north of Aleppo, which they liberated from a joint force of Assad troops and the Kurdish PYD. There are already reports of abuses and looting there.
At this stage, there is no democratic opposition ready to inherit control of the country. The hundreds of quasi-democratic revolutionary councils that once spanned liberated areas have been crushed, and most of the original civil activists are dead, imprisoned, or in exile. But if Assad falls, or at least if large areas of the country become safe from bombing, then millions of Syrians currently enduring existence in tents or the slums of neighbouring countries will be able to return. Then civil society, and democratic opposition, will begin to reconstitute itself.
What Syria needs now is a diverse but united national front. If other parts of Syria manage to expel Assadist forces, HTS and SNA influence will be diluted by people from other backgrounds and with other ideas. There are signs this may already be happening. Armed residents in Daraa and Homs provinces are attacking regime installations, while the semi-autonomous Druze community in Sweida roundly rejected Assad over a year ago, and has been demonstrating daily in support of the revolution.
Western governments should give up the absurd idea that the regime which has murdered hundreds of thousands of Syrians will ever bring stability. They should do what they can to discourage Russian and Assadist bombardment, and they should accept Syrian self-determination. The Western chattering classes, left as well as right, should resist the welter of Islamophobic and racist propaganda that Syrians are usually subjected to, and should seek to understand Syria on its own terms, not as an adjunct to other conflicts. More representative government in Syria, and in the wider Arab world, is in everyone’s interests.
[See also: How the Syrian civil war will suck in the world’s great powers]
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