The truth about this ceasefire deal between Israel and the government of Lebanon is that Lebanon’s leaders could not have signed it had Hezbollah balked. And beyond the relief for the civilian population, who are understandably celebrating, there is a strategic reality beneath this development. What made it possible for France and the United States to succeed as mediators and – if all goes well – end a total of 14 months of war, was a convergence of interests between Israel and Hezbollah.
Recall after Hamas’s 7 October 2023 attack on Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu went to war, vowing that he would only stop once Hamas had been destroyed. More than a year later, Hamas continues to fight and is far from destroyed, leaving Netanyahu no choice but to persevere. Not only has he staked his (faltering) reputation on achieving that goal, his far-right coalition partners, upon whom he depends to stay in office, believe that Hamas can in fact be obliterated and that anything short of that would be a betrayal of the nation. If they desert Netanyahu, he will likely cease to be prime minister and would be vulnerable to a slew of legal problems stemming from indictments alleging corruption, fraud, and breach of trust.
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