On 27 September, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu stood at the United Nations and recounted a prophecy thousands of years old. “Moses,” he said, “told us [the people of Israel] our actions would determine whether we bequeath to future generations a blessing or a curse.” The ancient words ring eerily true today. Having destroyed the military and intelligence apparatus of Hamas and Hezbollah and scattered their leadership, and on the verge of yet another strike against Iran, Netanyahu has arrived at a moment he has long dreamed of: a chance, in his mind, to change the power balance in the Middle East. But will he instead push the region further into the abyss?
After a year of tit-for-tat attacks which started with Hezbollah launching rockets into Israel on October 8, 2023, and with over 60,000 Israeli residents displaced from their homes in the north, Netanyahu has turned his attention to Lebanon. Through the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah and Hezbollah’s other senior leaders combined with an ongoing ground assault, Israel has left the group at a seemingly irrecoverable tactical disadvantage. The cost to Lebanon, however, has been tragically steep, with over a quarter of the population now displaced and over 2000 Lebanese killed. The UN resident coordinator and humanitarian coordinator for Lebanon, Imran Riza, has said that health facilities, mosques, historical markets, residential complexes and now government buildings “are being reduced to rubble”, and underscored that civilians and civilian infrastructure should not be a target. However, rather than turn the Lebanese against Hezbollah as Netanyahu wished, the punishing bombardment of Lebanese cities appears to have strengthened their unity in opposition to Israeli aggression.
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