Since the beginning of the war in Gaza, the escalation across the Middle East, and now the invasion of Lebanon, the biggest question on the table has been how Iran would react. Surely it could not just watch on as Israel dealt shattering blows to two of its closest allies: Hamas, and now Hezbollah? Now we know. In response to Israel’s killing of Hezbollah’s senior leaders, Iran fired a barrage of missiles at Israel’s territory on October 1. Seeking to both stay Iran’s hand and reassure Israel, the United States stationed two aircraft carriers in the area around Iran and, in the last two weeks alone, doubled the number of strike aircraft deployed in the area. And while some of the missiles fell across Israel and the West Bank, most were intercepted by Israel’s defence systems, with support from American aircraft and warships.
But acts based on certain intentions often create unintended effects that run counter to those same intentions. That’s especially true in wartime, when fear, misperception, and hubris abound. So American muscle-flexing may have reduced the scale of Iran’s retaliation against Israel; but it may also embolden Prime Minister Netanyahu to strike back at Iran even harder, as he has already promised. Indeed – he may even use this opportunity and the backing provided by the Biden administration to precipitate the unravelling of the entire Iranian state.
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