In an assessment of how the Russo-Ukraine War has been covered, the analyst Neil Hauer in War on the Rocks identifies a phenomenon that anyone following the conflict closely will recognise. “Both Ukraine and Russia have regularly been seen as the conflict’s inevitable victor,” he writes, “only to fall back down to Earth when the expectations created failed to live up to reality.” In other words, commentators have a tendency to be gripped by the narrative of either a Russian or a Ukrainian victory, only to be followed by a swing in the other direction as the supposedly losing side turns out to be more resilient than expected.
Not surprisingly Hauer urges that more attention be paid to the more cautious and careful analysts who emphasise “that anything with as many inputs and moving parts as the 21st century’s largest interstate conflict are exceedingly difficult to predict”. He also observes that the pendulum has recently swung back towards pessimism on behalf of Ukraine, as Russia has failed to collapse. This has led to proposals for a peace deal, combined with warnings that otherwise Ukraine is headed for certain defeat – with the credibility of Western foreign policy part of the collateral damage.
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