Inevitably, among the commentary surrounding the first anniversary of the Russo-Ukraine War there was speculation about whether it will have concluded by the second or even third anniversaries. On 24 February 2024 will the air-raid sirens still be sounding in Kyiv? Will Nato leaders still be willing and able to keep up the flow of arms and ammunition to Ukraine? Will Russia still assume an inexhaustible supply of men to send to the front, and will Vladimir Putin still be making interminable speeches that blame the West for an indefinite war?
Putin’s state of the union speech for 2023, delivered on 21 February, offered his audience neither a path to victory nor a promise of negotiations. The war Putin described was not so much against Ukraine but against Nato, supposedly taking advantage of a puppet regime in Kyiv. Viewed in this light, even victory in Ukraine would just move the conflict to a new arena. Yet he did not even explain Russia’s military strategy in Ukraine. “Step by step,” he said, “carefully and consistently we will deal with the tasks we have at hand.” How many steps and how long this would take he did not say. He talked in much more detail about support to the families of “fallen fighters”, “long-term home care and high-technology prosthetics” for the badly wounded, and then, for those currently fighting, “a leave of absence of at least 14 days every six months”– which is something for them all to look forward to. Meanwhile “the latest technology” will “ensure high-quality standards in the army and navy… Our goal is to start mass production. This work is under way and is picking up pace.” He was describing a new normal for Russia, geared entirely to war.
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