From the beginning of the war in Ukraine there have been concerns about confining it to two belligerents within defined geographical boundaries. The concern most often expressed is if Vladimir Putin, having seen his ambitions thwarted and with his forces on the run, lashes out in anger with nuclear weapons.
While no one dares to rule out an act of supreme irrationality, as I have argued here and here, nuclear weapon use would not solve any strategic problems for Russia. It would create many more. Nor has there been any indication that Putin is actually thinking along these lines: he is not even prepared to escalate by acknowledging that he is actually fighting a war and not just a limited “special operation”. Reservists have been signed up for the war in an almost covert fashion rather than through full mobilisation. Putin set a “red line” at the start of hostilities by demanding that Nato countries hold back from direct intervention in the war, and thus far this has been respected. For now, Nato is making an impact simply by keeping Ukraine economically afloat and militarily buoyant.
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