Emmanuel Macron was supposed to do two things. First, turn France into a dynamic, low-tax, high-tech nation with a lean state and sound finances. Second, keep “populism” – by which his supporters meant Jean Luc Mélenchon on one side and Marine Le Pen on the other – at bay. A year and a half into his second term, the president has failed at both objectives, and his government stands on the brink of collapse.
Having already lost his parliamentary majority in 2022, and after a poor performance in the European elections in June of this year, Macron dissolved parliament, calling snap legislative elections. But the only effect was to pit both left and far-right against him, and both made gains, whittling his coalition down further. He then refused to appoint Lucie Castets, the candidate of the New Popular Front which came first in the election. Instead, he opted for a government of the right (propped up by the far-right), with Michel Barnier as PM.
It is now speculated that Macron called the election to conceal the state of public finances. Macron cut taxes but not spending in the hope that unleashing economic activity would increase the state’s overall yield. His economic guru, Jean Pisani-Ferry, told Nouvel-Obs, “It wasn’t a bad strategy, but it did not work.” The regime is estimated to have cost €62 billion between 2018 and 2023. When it emerged that France’s current deficit, 2.6 per cent of GDP when Macron took power, was not the anticipated 4.4 per cent but 6.1, even Édouard Philippe, who served as his prime minister between 2017 and 2020, accused him of lying to the French people.
Amid the political and economic volatility, France’s borrowing costs have rocketed. They are now in line with those of Greece. The government is proposing a budget that involves reducing healthcare expenditure and cutting 4,000 teaching posts. The left has been largely committed to supporting a no-confidence vote since Barnier’s appointment. His selection won Le Pen’s support, but shifted her status from radical disruptor to president in waiting. Now she can play both agitator and pragmatist. When it was revealed that the proposed budget did not increase pension contributions and mooted increasing electricity taxes, she threatened to withdraw support and collapse the government. She has reportedly set a deadline of today (2 December) for the draft budget to be amended.
Tensions in the National Assembly are high. During a recent debate on pension reform, parliamentarians had to intervene to stop a member of the Macron coalition coming to blows with a Parti Socialiste MP. If the budget is passed by decree, the French will take to the streets. Senior members of La France Insoumise and the Rassemblement National have floated the possibility of a presidential election to end the crisis. A poll on the TV channel derided as “télé Macron” found that 63 per cent of the French people want Macron to go if the government falls. It is not just his government but Macron’s entire project that stands on the verge of collapse.
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