Following the 1963 attempt on his life that would later be depicted in the film The Day of the Jackal, Charles de Gaulle was considering his own future, and that of his political project. He put a referendum to the French people asking them to approve a reform that would mean the president was elected directly via universal suffrage rather than by an electoral college system. A vote of no confidence was put forward by the representatives in the Assembly who felt snubbed by the demand to bypass them. Georges Pompidou’s government fell, so De Gaulle dissolved parliament, won the legislative elections and his referendum passed.
No such options are available to Emmanuel Macron whose government, led by Michel Barnier, was defenestrated yesterday (4 December) by 331 votes, well beyond the required 288. Having already dissolved parliament once this year in an unnecessary election gamble that backfired badly, Macron is constitutionally unable to dissolve it again until next July. And even if he were able to dissolve the parliament, Macron is not De Gaulle. He is widely hated, his coalition was squeezed in July, and would likely lose even more seats now. But the system of the Fifth Republic affords considerable power to the president. Even though it is cracking under the contradictions produced by this summer’s election results, it is for Macron to decide how to proceed.
Constitutionally there is nothing stopping him from reinstalling Barnier, though he would face the same logjam. Similarly, the French press has speculated that he will attempt to appoint another figure from inside his camp as prime minister, though they too would face exactly the same issues: pushing through unpopular policies either by decree or through capitulation to the hard right. As Jean-Luc Mélenchon bombastically put it: “Even with another Barnier every three months, Macron will not last three years.”
One option available to Macron is that he appoints a PM from the left. If he genuinely wanted stability, he could appoint Lucie Castets, the candidate of the New Popular Front (NPF) the left alliance that came first in this summer’s elections, and order his deputies not to support a vote of no confidence. But given this would mean the overturning of his economic reforms, this is unlikely to happen. What Macron may try and do is nominate a figure from the centre left. A faction of the Socialist Party (PS) led by the former president François Hollande is deeply unhappy with the PS’s presence within the NFP, and with the confrontational stance that the alliance is taking.
If Macron were to appoint a dissident socialist as PM he could attempt to drive a wedge into the PS and force it to support his government, enlarging his coalition and weakening the left. One faction of the Ecologist Party is also amenable to this idea, though it would leave the Macronist coalition incredibly fragile. Another option being floated is forming a technical government of bureaucrats to oversee matters of state during the crisis. But given there is already an actual and perceived crisis of democracy in France, installing unelected bureaucrats to oversee austerity would destroy his successor’s chances at the next election.
Although the ball is in Macron’s court, his opponents, chiefly Mélenchon and Marine Le Pen, also hold considerable sway over the situation. Le Figaro reports that Le Pen is opting for a strategy of “institutionalisation”. Attempting to play the consensus-maker, she has called for the new PM to get to work on a new budget that “works for everyone”, one that the whole Assembly will be consulted on. She has claimed that her red lines remain the same and that if the government refuses to index pensions to inflation she will collapse it again. As ever, she is attempting to play both responsible politician and unapologetic disruptor.
Mélenchon’s strategy is not dissimilar. His France Unbowed party has worked diligently in the Assembly since the election, spending long hours scrutinising every text, demonstrating that it can exercise political responsibility. However, it sees its route to power through a presidential election. Mélenchon wants to provoke a political crisis that forces Macron’s resignation. France Unbowed argues there is a sufficiently large pool of disaffected voters that could coalesce around Mélenchon to drive him to victory.
Whether the party gets to test its theory remains to be seen. It would allow France to exit the current impasse, but could also throw the country from the Macronist frying pan into the Le Pen-ist fire if the election does not go Mélenchon’s way. This summer Macron plunged France into a crisis for which he has never taken responsibility. However he chooses to proceed, humility and recognition of his failures would ease tensions. But this is Emmanuel Macron, self-proclaimed Jupiter. His temper is as capricious as the French political situation is grave.
[See also: France’s budget turmoil reveals an EU damaged by Brexit]
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