It’s preposterous to suggest that India will dominate our century, either militarily or economically. Yet the idea is gaining momentum. The 21st century, we are told breathlessly, will be “India’s century”. Proponents of the notion liken India to China, but the comparison is grotesque. China’s GDP is six times India’s. Last year, the former added $3trn – another India – to its domestic product. One is a permanent member of the UN Security Council; the other isn’t. India’s foreign service is outnumbered by eight to one – at around 850 its mandarin class is no bigger than Singapore’s – and it shows. India’s neighbours fear China, but only disdain Delhi’s meddling. At 3 per cent, the country’s share of global manufacturing is the same as that of South Korea (China, meanwhile, accounts for about 31 per cent).
Militarily, the Indian navy is insignificant in the ocean that bears its name, while the navy of the People’s Liberation Army has a stranglehold over all the sea’s choke points: its so-called string of pearls – Hambantota in Sri Lanka, Gwadar in Pakistan, Kyaukphyu in Myanmar, among others. The bulk of India’s defence budget of $73bn, the fourth-highest in the world, is consumed by salaries and pensions. The rest is spent on a sempiternal weapons binge in which India has imported weapons in large quantities from Russia, its pretentions to Western alignment notwithstanding. This reliance on Moscow has exacted a price: India’s refusal to condemn the invasion of Ukraine in the UN.
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