Xi Jinping is facing one of the most important decisions of his nine years in power. Having declared at a meeting with Vladimir Putin on 4 February that there were “no limits” to the Sino-Russian relationship, the Chinese leader must now judge whether there are, in fact, some limits to his partnership with Moscow. Reports citing “US officials” allege that Russia has requested military and economic assistance from China since the war in Ukraine began. While China has dismissed the claims as “disinformation”, Xi must now consider how much he is prepared to risk to support the man he has called his “best, most intimate friend”.
Before Putin invaded Ukraine, the rationale for China to draw closer to Russia was obvious. As well as the men’s personal chemistry and Xi’s reported admiration for Putin’s strongman leadership style, the two countries share a mutual interest in their opposition to the United States. Viewed from Beijing, the US is implacably opposed to China’s rise and determined to view the country as a long-term strategic rival; China sees little discernible difference between the approaches of Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Given that outlook, the relationship with Russia made sense as a way to push back against the US, as well as providing China with a secure source of natural gas, coal, oil and wheat. It was what Chinese officials like to call a “win-win cooperation”.
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