It is crunch time in France. Yesterday, the Rassemblement National agreed to vote with the left alliance on their no-confidence motion against the government. This came after the prime minister Michel Barnier triggered Article 49.3 to force through the budget. If Barnier’s government is toppled this week, the pressure will be on President Macron to find a new government and a way to pass a budget as fast as possible. Never before in the Fifth Republic has the year ended with no budget and no government. We could be in a legal no-man’s land.
To save the budget and his government, Barnier offered many concessions to Marine Le Pen. But each time Le Pen had the same answer: not enough. Barnier agreed not to raise electricity prices last week. He agreed not to cut reimbursements for medicines, and to reduce medical aid for migrants. Still, it was insufficient. He did not restore index-linked pensions. And the latter was the official reason for Le Pen to “censure” Barnier. Here we are again in a familiar French story about pension measures triggering a major political crisis.
Le Pen is moving the goalposts. But if none of these concessions are enough, what are her real intentions? Is it just to get rid of Barnier, or does she ultimately want to get rid of Macron? Her comments leave a certain ambiguity.
Publicity-wise, she managed to be the of attention for the last two weeks. Barnier called it irresponsible to push the country into such chaos. Le Pen responded by saying her party will vote for the censure motion because people are fed up being mistreated. She can count on the fact that electorates blame governments, not opposition parties, if things go wrong.
The budget is quasi-guaranteed by the constitution. But the political consequences for Macron and Barnier differ across these four possible scenarios.
In the first scenario, Michel Barnier could agree to give Le Pen the final concession on pensions. That does not mean Barnier is out of the woods: he could still fall over the state budget bill later in December. And, if Le Pen proceeds with the censure motion despite these last-minute concessions, it could confirm that her “wish-list” was just a pretext for something else.
In the second possible scenario, if Barnier gets ousted this week, he could continue as caretaker until a new prime minister is nominated. To prevent a budget shutdown in the new year while the country is without a government, the caretaker government can present a special law that allows for the 2024 budget to be rolled over to 2025. If the special law is adopted in parliament, a new budget could then be worked out next year once a new government has been installed. La France Insoumise (Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s party on the left) and the RN (of Marine Le Pen) previously signalled that they would support this. (If the special law is not adopted, the budget could instead be rolled out by government decree. But legal experts are divided over whether a “censured” government could exercise such powers.)
In the third scenario, Macron nominates a new government before the end of the year. The new government comes up with a new budget and the clock resets for the 70 day examination in parliament. This means there could be a new budget some time next year, or another censure motion. If they need more time, a special law voted through parliament would give them an extension into the new year.
And finally, if there is no new government before the beginning of 2025, or if the new government fails with its budget, the political process is de facto blocked. Under these unprecedented circumstances, Macron could use Article 16 to take budgetary measures without parliament.
If Macron were to use his Article 16 powers, or if he could not find a new government, it may be considered by many as anti-democratic. How can balance be restored? The problem is that there cannot be legislative elections before July, since one year has to pass after the last snap elections. The pressure would build for Macron to resign. La France Insoumise is counting on it. And perhaps creating a crisis severe enough to force Macron out is what Le Pen is hoping for.
This is a decision for Macron alone to take. No parliament can force him. He rejected the idea of resignation so far. But as we have seen before, Macron can surprise and shift from previous positions. This is perhaps the biggest among the sea of unknowns. The worst case scenario is no budget, no government, and a president who sees no other choice but to resign.
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