Jens Stoltenberg, Nato’s secretary- general since 2014, knows the importance of a measured response. When we meet in central Brussels, less than 72 hours after a missile had exploded in the Polish village of Przewodów, close to the Ukrainian border, he looks understandably exhausted. In the immediate aftermath of the explosion on 15 November, which killed two Polish farmers, many feared the worst. Łukasz Jasina, a Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson for Poland – a Nato member since 1999 – released a statement calling the missile “Russian-made”; Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, said in his nightly televised address: “Russian missiles hit Poland, the territory of our friendly country.” That same day Russia had launched its biggest missile onslaught against Ukraine since the war began.
The atmosphere was febrile and Western analysts speculated on whether Article Five of Nato’s founding treaty — in which an attack on one member is considered an attack on all members — would be invoked, dragging the West into direct military conflict with Russia. It wasn’t long before “World War Three” began trending on Twitter.
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