Hispanics won’t be loyal Democrats forever

Democrats could do with Hispanics in the Sun Belt what Donald Trump did with white voters in the Rust Belt – but it won’t yield as big a dividend as the party might hope.

By Ben Walker

Latinx supporters attend a Biden/Harris Nevada Hispanic Legislative Caucus and supporters on horseback rally at the Walnut Community Center's early voting location in Las Vegas (Photo By Melina Mara/The Washington Post via Getty Images)

Much noise has been made about the US’s white voters without a college degree. In 2016 their marked and uniform swing to Donald Trump, and their willingness to turn out in key midwestern states, caught the Clinton campaign off guard and was a key factor in securing the Trump presidency.

In 2020, the Republican grip on blue-collar white voters is waning. So, too, is the demographic’s importance as a voting bloc. In 1980, white working-class Americans made up 63 per cent of all those who voted. In 2016, that number fell to 34 per cent, and forecasts for 2020 expect it to fall further, to between 30-32 per cent.