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16 September 2020updated 04 Sep 2021 8:06am

US presidential election swing states: Is 2020 the year Texas and Arizona will finally swing?

Demographics have shifted over time, but that doesn’t mean voting patterns have changed with them.

By Emily Tamkin

Texas has not elected a Democrat for president since 1976; Arizona voted for Bill Clinton in 1996, but has otherwise gone for the Republican candidate every year since 1952. And yet, for the last few cycles, Democrats have watched both states with bated breath: when will their results finally turn blue?

They were disappointed when Wendy Davis badly lost her governor’s race in Texas in 2014 and again when Beto O’Rourke narrowly lost his Senate race against Ted Cruz in 2018. They were also disappointed in 2016, when Hillary Clinton lost Arizona, despite announcing she would visit the state herself with just 12 days to go until the election.

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