The threat of violence looms over polling day. Donald Trump has already faced two assassination attempts over the course of this campaign. Three ballot boxes have been set alight in Washington and Oregon. The campaign was laced with threatening rhetoric. But the fear among many voters is that the worst is yet to come.
Shops and restaurants around Washington DC have been boarded up as businesses and local authorities expect protests in the days that follow what is likely to be a contested vote. Democrats and Republicans both suspect that the other side will trigger violent confrontations: one poll found 55 per cent of Trump voters in swing states thought Kamala Harris’s supporters would turn violent after the result, with the figure rising to 91 per cent when Harris voters were asked the same question of Trump supporters. “I didn’t know whether to come,” one woman worried about her safety told me at a Harris rally last week in Washington DC.
This election is the first presidential vote to take place since the Capitol riots on 6 January 2021, when Trump supporters rioted in an attempt to stop Congress from certifying Joe Biden’s victory. It was always likely that tensions would run high around voting day. But the threat is made worse by the presence of armed militias on the right. Online chatter among the Proud Boys, a militia which supports Trump, has increased in recent weeks, even though many of the group’s leaders were imprisoned for attacking the Capitol on 6 January. The Proud Boys’ leader, Enrique Tarrio, for instance, is serving 22 years in prison for seditious conspiracy.
Nonetheless, the Wall Street Journal reports that the Proud Boys group chats are rife with talk about their plans for a Trump loss. The assumption is that a loss must mean the Democrats rigged the election, which in turn would justify a violent response. The North Phoenix chapter posted a picture of guns on Trump’s social media platform, Truth Social, with the caption: “Proud Boys stocking up getting ready for Nov… It’s going to be biggley [sic]!!” On Telegram, the Ohio chapter urged followers to “prepare accordingly” for the “antifa” riots after the election. A trigger point could be various armed groups amassing round polling stations, claiming to protect the ballot boxes from fraud, as happened in 2020 in certain counties in swing states such as Arizona.
Almost 1,600 people have been charged following the 6 January attack, which could reduce the chances of a similar attack occurring again. A landslide for either side could also reduce speculation that the result is illegitimate, nullifying a reason for violence. The federal government has been preparing for unrest for a while, and security around buildings such as the Capitol has been tightened. And yet: because each side views a loss as existential for democracy, because conspiracy theories are flooding the online discourse, and because some think the results will be illegitimate no matter what happens, means that a violent reaction – whether it’s a protest that spins out of control or something more coordinated – could be imminent.
[See also: The spectre of American fascism]
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