Donald Trump has won the US presidential election. The former president is ahead across the “Blue Wall” – which includes Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania – and has won the swing states of Georgia and North Carolina. The path for Kamala Harris to reach 270 electoral college votes narrowed as the night drew on. County by county her vote share is down when compared with Joe Biden’s in 2020.
It is likely that Trump will win the popular vote for the first time ever too. Harris inherited a thin margin from Biden’s victory in 2020, when the result was decided by only tens of thousands of votes in a few swing states. That lead has been squandered. Whatever the final result, America has shifted to the right. Trump has support across the country and Harris has failed to convince swathes of swing voters that she deserves to be president. The Maga Republican Party is resurgent in America, buoyant at the prospect of power.
A bitter blame game could quickly consume the Democratic Party. The story begins with Joe Biden’s failure to recognise that his mental state meant that he was not a suitable candidate for president. But responsibility will fall as much on the people around him as the president himself. His belated departure led to Harris’s unchallenged coronation as the candidate. The lack of a primary meant that Harris was untested and seen as the beneficiary of a behind-the-scenes plot.
From there, Harris’s campaign message was incoherent. She refused to distance herself from Joe Biden. When asked on the chat show The View what she would do differently to the unpopular incumbent, Harris said “there is not a thing that comes to mind”. Her loyalty to Biden indicated to some voters that she did not understand why they were angry at the current administration. The cost of living, for example, is one of the most important issues in this election and Harris seems to have failed to convince voters that she understood their discontent, let alone had a plan to fix their problems.
Her messaging – from Brat summer to campaigning alongside Hollywood’s A-list to touting her Wall Street backers – only bolstered the perception that the Democrats are out of touch. Her decision to campaign day after day with the anti-Trump Republican Liz Cheney proved that her campaign had misunderstood the mood of middle America. Trump went to McDonald’s; Harris bounced around with billionaires.
This campaign will be remembered for Trump’s disdain for upper-middle-class tastes. He orders his steak well done with a side of ketchup. Guests on his private jet are served burgers and fries, complete with the little plastic tubs of BBQ sauce. The second biggest cheer at one Trump rally in Pennsylvania came when he complained about McDonald’s fries going cold. (The biggest cheer was in response to a promise to keep biological men out of women’s sports.)
Harris’s message in the final days of the campaign was that Trump was a fascistic threat to democracy, a tactic that would isolate swing voters who were curious about voting for him. The campaign focused on Trump’s downsides, instead of offering a plan of their own.
The result of this strategy is now being laid bare. Harris’s campaign has said this evening that she won’t address her supporters until tomorrow. Trump, meanwhile, has completed a historic political comeback, from political exile after 6 January to returning to the White House four years later.
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