The first hint came yesterday afternoon. As Rachel Reeves finalised her Budget speech she was pictured beneath a portrait of Labour’s Ellen Wikinson, Clement Attlee’s working-class education minister. It was a political changing of the guard – “Red Ellen” (a founding member of the British Communist Party) has replaced Nigel Lawson in the Chancellor’s office.  Today’s Budget was notable as the first to be delivered by a woman (an 800-year wait). But it was also one of the most class-conscious in history.  Though Reeves cherishes her status as a former Bank of England economist, she used her speech to draw sharp political dividing lines. Private schools, she confirmed, would pay VAT from next January, reminding the House that “94 per cent of ...

During the general election campaign, Rachel Reeves appeared trapped in a straitjacket of her own making. By pledging not to raise income tax, National Insurance, VAT and corporation tax, she had ruled out deploying the taxes that account for more than two-thirds of government revenue.  Reeves had also bound herself to fiscal rules that radically limited the scope for investment. In order to meet her promise to reduce government debt as a share of GDP, Labour’s manifesto offered just £4.7bn of extra capital spending. Economists scoffed at its fiscal modesty: call this a growth plan?  But today, in an act of political escapology, Reeves will break free of these constraints. First, she will increase employers’ National Insurance as part of what some predict will ...

On-the-ground visits are a staple of electioneering across the world. We are all likely familiar with the recent photo-ops in this US election campaign – Donald Trump in McDonald’s, Kamala Harris hanging out in a barber shop in west Philadelphia. But I have been looking at presidential candidates’ campaign stops over the years to work out whether they make any difference at all to the final vote. What is the logic, say, of Trump hitting Democrat-leaning areas? Or Harris avoiding hostile Republican seats and visiting areas where she already has a strong base? Let’s dig into the data. To start: with 15 days to go, Trump has made eight more stops than Harris, hitting the ground and hosting rallies. Below is an ...

The months since the election have been a precious reminder of what happens when elected leaders forget who put them into power. Labour were elected as an insurgent government of delivery that would mobilise against vested interests within and without the British state. But if you are elected on such a platform, you have to deliver. As a report by Labour Together from last month warned: “This Labour government has been cautiously hired, on a trial basis, liable to prompt dismissal if it deviates even slightly from its focus on voters’ priorities.” As they approach a decisive Budget, Labour are searching for ways to rally the country. And one issue that should not be forgotten amid the back-and-forth over tax ...

The “Theatre of Dreams”, as Manchester United’s Old Trafford stadium was nicknamed by Bobby Charlton, has in recent years become something more like a theatre of recurring nightmares. Erik ten Hag’s sacking as manager on Monday (28 October) following a 2-1 defeat to West Ham the previous day is just the latest cycle of the doom loop. Install a new manager (with declarations that “United are back”); pay inflated transfer fees on a confusing mish-mash of players; allow relations between club and players to deteriorate to the point of breakdown. All culminating in a traumatised fanbase baying for a valedictory “club statement” to put them and the manager out of their collective misery. The only real change is the name ...

The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) is seen by friend and foe alike as one of the world’s most powerful military machines. Yet Israel’s leaders habitually present their country as besieged by hostile nations bent on its destruction. This narrative persists even though some of the most important states in the Middle East – Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan – scarcely fit this description any more, and, moreover, are aligned with the US, Israel’s principal protector. It is this conception of Israel’s predicament that has led its leaders to favour a particular formula for deterring adversaries: when hit, hit back rapidly and much harder. So, when some 100 Israeli warplanes and drones hit sites in Iran – as well as Iraq and ...

To govern is to choose. That is the theme that will define Keir Starmer’s speech in the West Midlands today. “Politics is always a choice,” he will say. “It’s time to choose a clear path, and embrace the harsh light of fiscal reality.” This is an attempt to further prepare the ground for Rachel Reeves’ first Budget on Wednesday. That will feature up to £35bn of tax rises, including an increase in employers’ National Insurance (NI), a rise in capital gains tax on shares, reforms to inheritance tax and a freeze in income tax thresholds.  There is anxiety inside Labour over the likely impact of the Budget. The government is entering this event far less popular than MPs hoped after public outrage ...

In the weeks last year after my beloved Agnes’s sudden, shocking death, I didn’t want to get out of bed. On the day itself, on that long strange drive back to my childhood home, my mother had assured me that I could stay in what had once been my room for as long as I liked, and that I needn’t do anything but sleep. Then at some ungodly hour the next morning, she woke me up by yelling up the stairs: “Your dog needs feeding!” Looking back, I can see it was just one of the countless things she’s done for me for which I fear I’ve never properly said thank you. By making sure I took care of my dog, ...