Can Humza Yousaf survive a thrashing at the general election? Possibly, perhaps even probably. Should he? A different question with a different answer. Scotland’s First Minister has been in post for just over a year, a period that amounts to a sorry tale of missteps, crises self-inflicted and otherwise, and the initially slow and now not-so-slow dissipation of authority. For SNP politicians used to the whip-smart drive and popularity that came with the leadership of Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon, it is all a bit of a head-scratcher. They have grown entitled and comfortable on the back of prolonged success, of doing what they are told and watching opponents tumble at their feet. Yousaf won the race to succeed Sturgeon – if ...

Only 13 per cent of people would choose Rishi Sunak over Keir Starmer to put up a shelf, according to a poll from JL Partners. This is one of the most revealing surveys to come out this year. The question usually asked by this type of poll is who would you rather have a pint with. That was when people wanted their politicians relatable, chummy and amusing. But this is a sober age. The kids don’t drink any more. Putting up a shelf is a better symbol for the task facing our leaders than lobbing banter across the bar. The metric had to change because of Boris Johnson. He was the archetypal who-would-you-have-a-pint-with? prime minister. But he became a drunken bore ...

What makes for a scandal? Savvy observers in Westminster know that the public does not fixate on daily political churn. They have better things to do. The danger point for politicians is when negative stories cross the line that separates Westminster gossip from potentially career-ending moments. In other words, when an embarrassing story enters the public consciousness and becomes a scandal. It’s obvious when it happens. Ant and Dec mocking Boris Johnson for partygate on I’m a Celebrity… was one such moment. Liz Truss losing to a lettuce was another (chapeau, Daily Star). Gordon Brown calling Gillian Duffy a “bigoted woman” was a third. Dominic Cummings’ press conference in the Rose Garden. Piggate (fiercely denied).  The current row over Angela Rayner’s ...

Rachel Reeves has this morning announced a new plan to “take on the tax dodgers” and raise an extra £5.1bn a year by the end of the next parliament. The new policy is partly a riposte to Jeremy Hunt, who pinched Labour’s plan to tax non-doms in his Budget and spent the proceeds on a cut to National Insurance. Labour says the Conservatives gave those non-doms a rather generous window in which to expatriate their cash into offshore trusts, and a half-price rate on the tax they do decide to pay in the first year. Hundreds of millions can be saved by tightening up these loopholes. However, the real money will come from hiring up to 5,000 people to investigate tax avoidance ...

Last week, David Cameron wrapped up his trip to Brussels for the 75th anniversary Nato meeting of foreign ministers with a slick promotional video. Less than three minutes long, it shows the Foreign Secretary walking out of the Nato headquarters and explaining why he was there and what his priorities are now. He speaks with no notes, no script, making eye contact at all times as he reels off his message: what happened at the conference (the Ukrainian foreign minister called on Nato members once again for support in defending itself against Vladimir Putin’s Russia), and what he personally is going to do next (speak to the Ministry of Defence about what more Britain can do and increase the pressure on ...

The story of this parliament has largely been of Tory division and Labour unity. But when the war in Gaza began last October, these roles were reversed: the Conservatives united in support of Israel while Labour fractured. Six months later, the contrast between the two has lessened. Labour divisions over Gaza endure – Sadiq Khan and more than 50 MPs have called for the party to support a ban on arms to Israel – but they are now mirrored by Tory feuds.  Conservatives who have called for the government to suspend arms sales to Israel include MPs Crispin Blunt, Paul Bristow, Flick Drummond, David Jones and Alicia Kearns, as well as peers Nicholas Soames and Hugo Swire. It was Kearns, the Foreign ...

What if the polls are true? What if the Conservatives are on course not just to lose the traditionally Labour seats in the Red Wall won in 2019, as well as the mid-sized towns that usually constitute marginal seats, but also lose large numbers of constituencies that have previously been thought of as safely Conservative? What if the Blue Wall – consisting of traditionally Conservative seats in the greater south-east of England – is about to fall? It is a question that Conservative MPs are increasingly asking themselves as Labour’s poll lead stubbornly refuses to fall. Particular attention is always paid to multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) polling which takes a large national sample and then applies the results to reflect ...

Mairi McAllan is a woman of intriguing contrasts. At just 31, having only been a Member of the Scottish Parliament since 2021, she has one of the toughest and most expansive jobs in the SNP government, as the Cabinet Secretary for Wellbeing Economy, Net Zero and Energy. Despite this stellar ascent, she describes herself as “a reluctant politician”. Friends confirm this, saying she almost had to be press-ganged into standing by former first minister Nicola Sturgeon, for whom she was a special adviser. McAllan trained in the cut-throat world of corporate law, but also helped set up RebLaw Scotland in 2017, a movement that originated in the US with the aim of putting social justice at the heart of the legal ...