Polls change. In 1991 Labour led the Tories by 15 points, as they do today. That lead then rapidly narrowed and the Tories won a majority in 1992. Today’s Labour lead may also collapse. Mention 1991 to a Tory loyalist and they will write you an excited column in the Telegraph – as Gordon Rayner did this week – about how the Tories can win the next election.
But there are major reasons to doubt this optimism. For one, the Conservatives are out of options at the top. In 1991 the party recovered by getting rid of Thatcher. Today, after the self-immolations of 2022, it is stuck with Rishi Sunak. Even under the calmer leadership of the respected former chancellor, the party trails Labour on the question of who would best manage the economy.
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