Is this death? Conservative whips have been asked to cancel their plans and head back to Westminster, with the general expectation that it must mean that 15 per cent of the Conservative Parliamentary Party (48 MPs) have sent letters calling for a no confidence vote in Theresa May’s leadership.
The well-founded conventional wisdom is that May will win any confidence vote as while the Brexiteers have the numbers to trigger a confidence vote, they don’t have the support of anything like half the parliamentary party. That’s true, but – as I explained in more detail back in October – while when I pick up the phone, most Tory MPs say, “no way, not now” if you suggest that May might go, they also know that under party rules, if May wins a confidence vote she cannot face another one for a year. There is a huge reluctance to allow the May era to drag on until the end of 2019. I think James Forsyth has the right of it this morning: yes May ought to win a confidence vote. But her chances of defeat are pretty high if enough MPs decide getting rid of May early is a price worth paying to avoid being stuck with her indefinitely.
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