After 14 years out of office, you might think that Labour had a better plan for what to do once they finally crossed the threshold of 10 Downing Street. But given the slew of rookie PR errors, squandering what public goodwill they had, it seems this is a lofty assumption. The government is adrift and the optics are a mess – so much so that local Labour party campaigners are reportedly reluctant to go out on the doors, anxious to talk to their electors face-to-face.
The narrative of a government in total-spiral is tempting, but is it fair? There were scandals in Tony Blair’s first 100 days: Formula 1; the Ecclestone Affair (only a rumour at the time but vindicated by the facts in 2008). There was a similarly controversial vote on cuts to welfare payments that his party forced through, desperate to shake off the reputation as big spenders. New Labour weathered all of this, and survived in office for over a decade.
But this is not 1997 – a time when British voters were more tribal and politically loyal. Labour’s 2024 landslide was loveless and built on quicksand. And unlike 1997, where the opponents to Labour was just one party, now there are many things nipping at Labour’s heels: Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, Reform. Of the council by elections Labour has had to defend so far, it has managed to hold on in two-thirds of them. In the first 100 days of the 1997 Labour administration, Labour was holding on to eight-in-ten of them.
And the drop in support is greater today than it was then. Over the last few months Labour has fallen 12 points in seats they’ve had to defend. In 1997, Labour was down only five points.
Keir Starmer's fall from grace is marked. Blair, meanwhile, enjoyed a long-lasting period of public goodwill. This is one of the many reasons 1997 is a bad analogy for 2024. Both years saw a Labour landslide, but the conditions and enthusiasm were different. Starmer struggled with public opinion polls throughout. Blair was always popular.
Keir Starmer, by his own admission, doesn't do politics well. This is self-evident: the implosion of Sue Gray; the drip feed of reports that No 10 is a rather unhappy place to work; and the elevation of Morgan McSweeney to chief of staff portray an administration in chaos. McSweeney should improve matters. But appointments like these, it goes without saying, do not excite the public imagination and will not be a reputational salve in the short term. McSweeney's value will become obvious in the months and years to come – in how Labour communicates its policy, and in keeping a tight reign on No 10's image.
Meanwhile, the new Conservative leader has not yet been elected. But whoever is elected – Robert Jenrick or Kemi Badenoch – has their work cut out for them. The party will struggle on two fronts: uniting the right and breaking ground in Labour's vote. They need someone who can break current preconceptions about the party, lifting its brand out of the dust. At first glance, neither Badenoch nor Jenrick are up to it. They are not household names and they would be joining a field already filled by Nigel Farage – Mr Brexit, liked by a quarter of the electorate, and indulged by upwards of half the Tory base. How will the next leader reckon with that? By out-Reforming Reform? They seem to be heading that direction but the calculation is a risky one: why would voters want a copy over the genuine article?
So what does this all mean for Labour? They are not just vulnerable to the Tories anymore. Reform are hiring organisers, gunning for Labour in the north, midlands and crucially Wales. The Greens, meanwhile, are psyching up the apathetic young vote, hopeful of eating up Labour seats in a way Labour's activists are not preparing for. And then there are the Liberal Democrats, having returned in force to the Tory shire seats the coalition evicted them from. They are turning to face Labour down in places like Cambridge, Sheffield and Hull.
But in the end, battered and bruised though the Labour brand may be, none of this is fatal. In this game of first-past-the-post all that matters is "us v them". And in the majority of seats it is Conservatives v Labour. If the landscape still looks like this in the next election (and I doubt it entirely will), in these Conservative v Labour fights, Labour will still emerge victorious.
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