From 11 November the world’s climate delegates, diplomats and global leaders will assemble in Baku, Azerbaijan for the 29th UN conference of the parties. Cop29 will come after a change in government in the UK with a Labour Party pursuing its clean power 2030 mission. The Energy Secretary Ed Miliband, a Cop veteran, alongside David Lammy, the Foreign Secretary, has set out plans to create a new Clean Power Alliance. This is a group of countries all focused on accelerating the transition away from oil and gas and has been dubbed a “reverse Opec” by Labour insiders.
Cop29 is an opportunity, then, for the UK to reinstate itself as a global climate leader. The government can use the conference to demonstrate its influence and encourage the decarbonisation journey of other nations by showcasing the launch of Great British Energy and its new clean power 2030 goal.
But it is also an opportunity to push harder for more details of how this transition will be financed globally. It ought to be a moment to set out the exact form of the Loss and Damage Fund, a question that has proved a central part of the negotiations at previous conferences. So, when UK delegates arrive in Baku, what should they focus on to make Cop29 truly successful?
Sam Alvis, director, energy and environment, Public First
Barack Obama’s former foreign policy speechwriter Ben Rhodes often cites the moment in crafting the annual State of the Union speech where the president would need to shift from domestic issues to foreign policy. In eight years, he never managed much beyond, “We cannot separate our work here, from our work abroad.” That truism, though trite, couldn’t be more relevant for Ed Miliband’s ambitions at Cop29.
Demonstrating the UK’s success in decarbonising its economy is one of the most powerful motivators to the British public for climate action. It’s a nice dose of patriotism that our country can achieve things and that we are “world-leading”. That message also works well abroad. Labour’s mission to decarbonise the power sector by 2030 isn’t just about domestic energy prices and security. It’s also about proving to other countries that carbonisation can be done, and that it can be electorally beneficial. The political rhetoric is that we can export technologies or expertise to developing countries – but as some developed countries waver on climate action, it’s as important to export successful policy and politics to them. Ed Miliband is helped by Cops gradually becoming more tangible too. We will always have closed doors and technical negotiations. But, increasingly, Cops are moments to launch shared domestic pledges – on rolling out renewables, making electric vehicles accessible, or increasing energy efficiency. This is a Labour sweet spot.
As some developed countries waver on climate action, it’s as important to export successful policies and politics, talking not just to Labour’s domestic voters, but about them.
Lindsay Hooper, chief executive, Cambridge Institute of Sustainability Leadership
In order to make Cop29 – as well as all future Cops – a success, we must tackle the complex dynamics of private-sector involvement head on. While there are valid concerns about the influence of fossil fuel companies and the risk of diluting ambition, the failure of progressive businesses to engage could undermine progress on reshaping the economic systems and market structures that are necessary for real change.
The truth is, we need business and finance to be at the table – not to dictate terms, but to provide insight into the structural changes required and so that they can be held accountable for their role in the transition.
This approach mustn’t start and stop at Cop. There is also a need post-Cop for effective private-sector engagement and support for national economic, industrial and innovation strategies and practical delivery plans, including long-term, clear and consistent incentives and support for private-sector transition.
This year’s Cop, hosted in a fossil-fuel-dependent state, faces additional scrutiny. But rather than abandoning ambition, we should leverage it as an opportunity to engage those most impacted by the transition. It’s only by including all stakeholders – those driving change, those not yet engaged, and even those that are actively resistant to it – that we can build an equitable, effective pathway to a sustainable future for everyone.
Liam Hardy, senior policy analyst, Green Alliance
Cop29 offers an enormous opportunity for the new government to signal that the UK is back as a global climate leader. While climate finance will be the headline issue in Baku, the UK must also pair its international commitments with bold domestic action to truly lead on the world stage. This will be a chance for Keir Starmer to lay out an ambitious vision for key areas of UK climate policy.
Countries have to submit updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) ahead of next year’s Cop30, and the UK should seize this moment to set a target for cutting carbon pollution by 2035. However, the immediate priority for the Prime Minister and his cabinet must be to devise a plan to actually deliver the UK’s current NDC for 2030, to help meet the Paris Agreement goal of limiting temperature rises to 1.5°C. Even if the previous government delivered all its existing pledges and policies in full, it was not on track to deliver the UK’s NDC. Another priority area for action is on methane emissions – one of the most potent greenhouse gases. At Cop26, the UK helped launch the Global Methane Pledge to cut global methane emissions by 30 per cent by 2030 from 2020 levels. However, since then, domestic action on methane has stalled. At Cop29, the UK can lead by setting a national methane reduction target of 42 per cent by 2030, which would be both achievable and world-leading.
And, while the government has one of the most ambitious clean power targets globally, hitting net zero by 2050 depends on securing access to critical raw materials. Cop29 must drive international cooperation to ensure fair, responsible access to these resources.
Harry Camilleri, researcher, climate and geopolitics, E3G
Cop29 will take place in difficult geopolitical circumstances, with the US election and ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East threatening to overshadow the talks. Nevertheless, at Cop, leaders can help rebuild trust in the multilateral system by showing the 1.5°C target remains within reach.
The biggest negotiating priority is agreeing a new goal to mobilise climate finance at the necessary scale. To be successful, the goal must include a significant increase in support for developing countries.
Ambitious governments can also show leadership by announcing new national climate plans, which will set emissions-reduction targets for 2035, ahead of next February’s deadline – the countries’ Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
The NDCs must be economy-wide and embed pledges made by countries at Cop28 to triple global renewable energy deployment and double the annual rate of energy-efficiency improvements by 2030, while transitioning away from fossil fuels.
The current set of plans puts the world on track for 2.5-2.9°C of warming, so substantially strengthened targets are required to keep the 1.5°C goal alive. To support the countries most directly threatened by climate change, the Loss and Damage Fund, which was agreed at Cop27 and given more detail at Cop28, must be operationalised.
Vulnerable states should also receive assurance that the new finance goal will significantly increase the quality and quantity of funding for adaptation.
Maya Singer Hobbs and Laura Chappell, senior research fellow and associate director for international policy, IPPR
Luckily, success for the government and success for the climate at Cop29 look remarkably similar. Success equals ambition.
The new government wants to be seen as an international climate leader. This means supporting ambitious outcomes at Cop29 – not least an ambitious commitment on climate finance to support developing nations in their climate action, known as the New Collective Quantified Goal.
This is a defining issue at Cop29 for most countries, and it must balance public investment and private mobilisation, as well as mitigation, adaptation and loss and damage – while also committing the world to meet the urgency needed on climate action with the sheer volume of funds. Estimates suggest that $1trn in external support may be needed annually by 2030. This is ten times the previous collective goal.
But Cop agreements are only part of Cop success. For the UK to be seen as a credible climate leader – and for Cops to shepherd transformative global climate action – they must be mirrored by ambitious domestic action. The UK must continue to tell the world how it plans to reduce emissions rapidly and fairly at home; and of its commitment to support others.
It can point to its plans – via the Clean Power Alliance – to use domestic industrial policy to unlock action overseas – and it must have a story to tell on its aid budget which doesn’t undermine UK leadership. If ambition stays front and centre, success is possible.
Lindy Fursman, director climate and energy policy at the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change
At the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change (TBI) we work with political leaders in more than 40 countries around the world, helping many to address the challenges of climate change. We believe that the adoption of clean technologies, combined with the investment to facilitate their use, is key to the climate agenda.
Cop29 will include a focus on countries’ new Nationally Determined Contributions for 2035.
While all countries must continue working to reduce their emissions, a key challenge lies in supporting the transition to cleaner energy systems in low- and middle-income countries. Capital flows into climate action are still woefully inadequate, and the issue of finance to support the transition of emerging economies is particularly pressing. A successful Cop will therefore include progress on climate finance and carbon markets, both of which we see as pivotal to supporting climate action globally.
A key focus should be on how these can channel capital to the areas where it’s needed most. There are also huge opportunities to leverage technology, including to improve the transparency, efficiency, and security of climate investments and open new avenues, including in carbon markets, for increased climate financing. Although this will require strong and sustained leadership for Cop29 and beyond, these opportunities are key to accelerating progress and developing the solutions that deliver on the challenge ahead.
Ruth Townend, senior research fellow, Environment and Society Centre, Chatham House
Taken together, Cop28, Cop29 and Cop30 represent a chance to reset lagging global climate action, amid the escalating impacts of climate change.
Under the leadership of a novel “troika” of the UAE, Azerbaijan and Brazil, these Cops can get to the heart of the matter – fossil fuels. Between them, these troika countries make up the fourth-largest oil producer in the world. For a successful Cop29, the current Cop president, Azerbaijan, must overcome its own reticence to tackle both energy-transition risk and climate vulnerability, leading other nations to do the same.
A viable path forward for developing-producer countries like Azerbaijan would change the game by raising the ceiling of ambition. The Cop presidency must avoid distractions, including the customary flurry of new initiatives. Money, instead, must do the talking, as the conference has a mandate to hash out a new, wide-ranging and sufficient climate finance goal to fund climate action in developing countries.
Achieving this could set funds flowing and speed countries on their way to ambitious new climate plans, urgently needed before Cop30, which will take place at the end of next year. Bringing together the combined skill and will of the world, Cop29 must free up grinding gears in the Paris Agreement mechanism, which was signed almost a decade ago, and help secure a safer climate for us all.
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