A telling trend is evident in the data on injuries and deaths from road traffic accidents. Whenever a compulsory safety measure is introduced – the wearing of seat belts in cars, or helmets on motorcycles – there is an initial drop in casualties. Yet over time, the statistics worsen again. This reflects the unconscious relationship between perceptions of safety and risk. A protective factor such as a seat belt creates a feeling of relative security. This leads to a tendency to take more risks with speed, for example, or with maintaining a safe braking distance from other vehicles.
According to an analysis by the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine (CEBM) at Oxford University, in the month leading up to the first English national lockdown, the number of Covid cases in the UK was doubling every three days. On 23 February 2020 there were fewer than a dozen hospitalised patients; by 23 March that had grown to 12,000. Bad enough, but consider what would have happened over the ensuing fortnight. Given the three-day doubling time, by early April the number of Covid patients requiring hospital care would have exceeded the total NHS beds of any type in the entire country.
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