12 July 2024

Will Vaughan Gething survive the month?

Labour is losing its hold on Wales.

Keir Starmer’s national dominance belies the instability plaguing Welsh Labour. Vaughan Gething could be out as First Minister within a year of his election. His position has been fragile since he lost a vote of confidence 78 days after taking the job in March. Even though he dismissed the defeat as a gimmick and refused to resign, the vote exposed the divisions within his party. It revealed a leader who had failed to bring his members of the Senedd (MS) together – and who will soon face the consequences.

Politics is a numbers game. Fundamentally, Gething’s Labour does not have a majority in the Senedd. His scandal-strewn leadership has pushed away Plaid Cymru, whose votes Labour needs to govern, as well as the Lib Dems’ sole MS, Jane Dodds. The then shadow cabinet member Emily Thornberry might have said at the time that the vote of confidence was insignificant, which had the side effect of dismissing the Senedd as an institution. But the fact remains that Gething could not get his entire party to vote for him.

From the start, this has been a story of personal failure. In the wake of the leadership contest, Gething could not shake the accusation that he showed poor judgement by taking campaign donations from a man who has been convicted twice for environmental crimes. He followed this up with the rash decision to sack his minister Hannah Blythyn for allegedly leaking to the press text messages Gething deleted during the pandemic. It was an accusation Gething struggled to back up. Now, the website that published the story, Nation Cymru, has claimed Blythyn was not its source. The news outlet said: “We can state unequivocally that Mr Gething is not telling the truth when he suggests that he has incontrovertible evidence that Ms Blythyn was our source.”

A first minister harangued for being arrogant and dismissive, who cannot shake criticism for not returning money he accepted from a criminal, whose own MSs didn’t vote for him and are increasingly frustrated with his leadership, has now been accused of lying about the reason he sacked one of his ministers. He looks unlikely to be able to pass a budget at the start of next year, which would make his government untenable. But he could be gone sooner than that. The opposition could table another confidence motion – this time a binding motion in the government, not Gething himself. Or Labour MSs could turn on him: Nation Cymru has reported that at a party away day on Thursday some called for him to resign. If he feels backed into a corner, Gething could equally seek an early election.

Labour has governed Wales since devolution began 25 years ago. But the party’s dominance is creaking. Its vote share in the general election in Wales fell to 37 per cent from 41 per cent in 2019 (despite winning six more seats). Reform insiders are gleefully eyeing up the 2026 Senedd elections, confident that the more proportional voting system could provide an opening. Much as Sadiq Khan has warned Labour not to be complacent about the party’s dominance in London, some in Wales think the leadership is taking its core vote for granted. As one Welsh Labour source said: “[Gething] won’t lead us into the next election but if he does we are f****d.”