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16 June 2021

Martin Rees and Steven Pinker: Wagering on catastrophe

Four years ago these two eminent scientists bet on the likelihood of a man-made global biological disaster. Is it time to decide a winner? 

By Martin Rees

Advances in biomedicine have vastly improved health and extended life all over the world, including its poorest countries. Over the past 25 years an average human has gained seven years of life expectancy. The gain is more than just staying alive: the number of healthy years she will enjoy has risen too.

The future benefits to humanity could be greater still. According to the Global Burden of Disease project, every year the world loses a total of 1.65 billion years of potential life due to premature death, and another 853 million years of healthy life due to disability and illness. If you have lost a loved one to cancer, heart failure or a degenerative disease, as you surely have, you can appreciate the unfathomable gift of a biomedical advance that would have kept them alive. Multiply that gift by billions and you can begin to appreciate the possible bounty of progress in our battle against disease.

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