Predicting whether and when the Conservative Party will trigger a confidence vote in Theresa May is a fool’s errand. We are operating from a position of total ignorance about two things: how many people have signed letters of no confidence already and how many people are signing letters today. The only person who could plausibly know is Graham Brady, the chair of the 1922 Committee.
But despite all of that, I think there has been a real and significant shift in the Conservative Party, and one that has important implications not only for the chances that May will face a confidence vote in her leadership, but also that she will lose it.
Subscribe to The New Statesman today from only £8.99 per month
Content from our partners
