It fell to Philip Hammond, a fiscal conservative, to announce that “the era of austerity is finally coming to an end”. The Chancellor had a spending commitment to justify his boast: departmental spending will rise by an annual average of 1.2 per cent. But compared to pre-crash norms – and shared among a growing and ageing population – this remains austere indeed. After the extra spending allocated to the NHS (£23.4bn by 2023), unprotected departments will still face further cuts.
Though Hammond strived to resonate optimism, the figures told of permanent stagnation. Economic growth is forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility to fall below 2 per cent in every forecast year: 1.6 per cent (2019), 1.4 per cent (2020), 1.4 per cent (2021), 1.5 per cent (2022) and 1.6 per cent (2023). And this assuming the UK avoids the recession that historic trends suggest is inevitable.
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