Labour, contrary to some reports, never feared Kemi Badenoch. No 10 aides did not dismiss the possibility that she could surprise as Conservative leader but saw nothing to trouble them. In the event, Badenoch has fallen below even these low expectations.
Yesterday’s Prime Minister’s Questions was an apt demonstration. As opposition leader, Badenoch is spoiled for choice. The government has removed winter fuel payments from almost all pensioners (to the unhappiness of Labour MPs). It has announced a rise in employers’ National Insurance, alienating the businesses it worked hard to woo in opposition. And it has vowed to increase inheritance tax on farmland, prompting a revolt in the rural seats Labour won.
Badenoch could have led on any of these – but she chose to lead on immigration. After last month’s figures – which showed net migration reached a record 906,000 under the Conservatives – this was a brave decision. Keir Starmer, who could not quite believe his luck, simply repeated his attack from two weeks ago, deriding the Tories’ “one-nation experiment in open borders”.
Whether Labour will benefit from this charge is debatable. The government, some warn, has raised expectations on immigration that it cannot possibly meet. Nigel Farage, by this logic, will be the ultimate beneficiary.
But yesterday made one thing clear: Badenoch won’t be. As she framed Starmer as a soft liberal lawyer, the Conservative leader gave the impression of someone who had somehow missed the result of the 2024 general election. If such attacks did not prevent a Labour landslide then why would they work now?
Yet nothing Badenoch has done suggests she has much interest in learning from the Tories’ worst defeat. She has opposed the introduction of VAT on private school fees (one of Labour’s most popular policies). She has failed to apologise for Liz Truss’s premiership (an omission that has left No 10 strategists rubbing their hands with glee). She has refused to acknowledge the existence of Liberal Democrats.
Oppositions almost never get to set the terms of debate. This is true even after close election results but it is particularly true after a landslide defeat. While Badenoch’s rhetorical sallies against the “bureaucratic class” are ideal for op-ed discussion, there is little sign they have any purchase in the country.
This is hardly unusual – Michael Foot, Ed Miliband and William Hague are reminders of the travails of first-term opposition. But Badenoch’s challenge is bigger than most. The adversarial Westminster system and first-past-the-post have served to insulate Labour and the Tories after defeats. Even the Social Democratic Party – blessed with generational talents – could not “break the mould” in 1983.
But in Farage, Badenoch faces a grave threat to the Tories’ status as the main opposition. While the Conservatives appear stagnant, Reform is politically and culturally insurgent. That’s one reason why – just a month after Badenoch’s election – Tory MPs are already reminded of Hague’s adage: “The Conservative Party is an absolute monarchy moderated by regicide.”
This piece first appeared in the Morning Call newsletter; receive it every morning by subscribing on Substack here.
[See also: Nigel Farage won’t become prime minister]
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