Sometimes it can be heartening to get a reality check from the British public. There has been a worrying trend this past week of handwringing commentators and politicians attempting to explain or even justify the riots that have broken out across the UK. We’ve heard a lot of terms like “legitimate concerns” and “failures of multiculturalism”. In the really quite remarkable words of Donna Jones, chair of the Association of Police and Crime Commissioners, the way to end the disorder is to “acknowledge what is causing it” and find a solution to “mass uncontrolled immigration”.
Brits are not buying it. A reassuring YouGov poll published yesterday (6 August) revealed an overwhelming majority – 85 per cent – of people oppose the unrest we have seen while just 7 per cent support the violence. Most people see through the sickening argument made by those encouraging the riots that this has something to do with avenging the killing of three little girls in Southport over a week ago – less than half think the violence is anything to do with the attack.
The idea that the mobs trashing streets, burning libraries, attacking migrant hotels, looting shops and hurling bricks at police are in some way channelling universal sentiment that represents “real people” (as though there is something less real about the shop-owners, or police officers, or indeed migrants) is comprehensively rejected. Just one in eight people think the rioters are somehow representative of most Britons – a smaller proportion than those who voted for Reform in the election a month ago. Interestingly, while Reform voters are much more likely than voters of other parties to be sympathetic, even they condemn the violence by a huge majority.
It all puts the toxic cesspit of social media – where, for example, Elon Musk is taunting the Prime Minister of the actual United Kingdom about the risk of “civil war” and calling him “TwoTierKeir” as though this were a playground spat – somewhat into perspective. And it suggests that Keir Starmer’s strategy of trying to stay above the fray as much as possible and focus on bringing the “full force of the law” down on those choosing to riot is the right one, both practically and politically.
This should be similarly straightforward for the Conservatives, as the traditional party of law and order. But the opposition has been all over the place. Rishi Sunak, who remains Tory party leader as the five-month contest to replace him runs its course, has tweeted once, condemning the “violent, criminal behaviour that has no place in our society”, but has been otherwise silent.
The six leadership hopefuls have been skirting around the edges of the issue. Priti Patel made the toughest intervention, calling out Nigel Farage’s attempt to fan the flames and backing the police by refuting claims of two-tier policing. Robert Jenrick has called for the violence to end, saying “now is the time to punish the guilty and restore order”. Tom Tugendhat and James Cleverly have gone down the road of criticising the strength of the Labour government’s response, but cautiously. Mel Stride has gone after social media. And Kemi Badenoch has made some provocative comments about how integration isn’t working.
In the wake of an election defeat, these riots should be an opportunity for the party to reassert its credibility by taking the toughest of tough stances against the thugs attacking police and setting things on fire, and backing the government’s law-and-order approach. The next election won’t be for at least four years, so there is no need to create a dividing line on an issue in which the vast majority of the public are in agreement. It would also enable the Tories to differentiate themselves from Reform, whose leader has been antagonising the situation. (In fact, 47 per cent of people in the YouGov poll believe Farage is partly responsible for the riots.) Coming out hard against the rioters and in support of the police should be a no-brainer.
One explanation of the Tory hesitancy is that the party is still working out what to do about the threat of a right-wing insurgent. It wasn’t all that long ago that right-wing Conservatives such as Jenrick were suggesting the party should listen more to Farage on immigration, and potentially let him rejoin the Tories (a position Jenrick says he no longer holds). The leadership contenders know they will have to unite the right to be successful, and perhaps do not want to antagonise people they worry are Tory-Reform switchers whom they are trying to win back.
But I wonder if there’s another reason. If these riots reveal a breakdown in law and order and a rejection of Britain’s approach to mass immigration, it is hard to have that conversation without directing the blame squarely in the Conservatives’ direction. Experienced police numbers are down to a level at which it’s a struggle to remain in control. There’s a courts backlog – which long predated Covid – so severe that efforts to swiftly process all those arrested this past week will have a devastating effect on those who have already waited far too long for justice, as the former chief Crown prosecutor Nazir Afzal told me. And the overcrowding crisis in our prisons means Labour has already taken the tough decision to release inmates after 40 per cent of their sentences just to make room.
On the migration front, we should consider not just the spike in legal immigration after Boris Johnson became prime minister, but the use of hotels to house migrants that have become the target of such fury. Hotel accommodation for those waiting for their asylum claims to be processed hit £8m a day in 2023. A significant driver of that eye-watering cost is the slow speed of processing claims, both because the Home Office has been understaffed and overwhelmed, and because the Conservative government deliberately decided to stop processing claims from people who entered the UK illegally, leaving them stranded in hotels and allowing costs to spiral.
To return once more to the public, it is notable that two thirds view immigration as having contributed to the civil unrest, while 55 per cent say the same of recent Conservative governments.
All in all, it makes it tricky for Tory leadership contenders to pitch their interventions at the appropriate level. That may be why they are choosing to mostly sit this out, despite it being the only story in UK politics at the moment. It also shows how challenging it will be for Starmer to make his “law and order” solution work, given how significantly those tools have been undermined. At least the public is with him – for now.
[See also: How did rioting constituencies vote?]
Content from our partners
Related
