The YouGov survey of 14,000 voters puts the Tories on 169 seats and Labour on 385, which would hand Keir Starmer a 120-seat majority. This should not come as a surprise because Labour’s lead in the polls since Sunak became Prime Minister has been solidly 20 points. The Lib Dems will be pleased with 48 seats (which seems quite high). The survey used a multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) method which, the Telegraph adds, predicted the 2017 and 2019 results.
Some caveats: the polling tables from YouGov are not yet published. Against YouGov’s voting tracker – which has Labour on 45 per cent against 22 per cent for the Conservatives – the results actually look quite good for the government. You would expect the Conservatives to lose even more seats on those numbers. The fact that tactical voting is also not taken into account means the real result could be worse for the Tories if some Lib Dem and Labour voters sort themselves into an anti-Tory coalition.
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