The struggle against the Covid pandemic will be measured in years, not months. This much has been made clear by the virus’s lethal advance across India and the Global South. Britain, however, is in an immeasurably stronger position than it was a year ago. The vaccine roll-out, a model of mission-led, public-private innovation that only the state can lead, has dramatically reduced deaths, hospitalisations and cases. Around 70 per cent of adults have received one dose and nearly 40 per cent have had two.
For once, the promise of a return to normality may not be a hollow one. But it is far from unconditional. The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies estimates that the B.1.617 “Indian” variant may be 50 per cent more transmissible than the Kent variant that was proliferating at the end of last year. Its spread in the UK may thwart the planned full unlocking on 21 June. The number of unvaccinated adults, scientists warn, is high enough to cause a resurgence in hospitalisations similar to or larger than previous peaks. In addition, as our medical editor Phil Whitaker writes, “both nationally and internationally there are documented cases of hospitalisation among fully vaccinated individuals who have contracted the Indian variant”.
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