3 June 2020

How the Conservatives’ China hawks could transform government policy

Rebel MPs feel validated by China’s handling of coronavirus and its action against Hong Kong.

BEIJING, CHINA - MAY 28: Chinese president Xi Jinping listens during the closing session of the National People's Congress, which included a vote on a new draft security bill for Hong Kong, at the Great Hall of the People on May 28, 2020 in Beijing, China. The Chinese government passed the draft by a vote of 2,878 votes to one during the session. The draft law, which has drawn international concern, is set to address issues such as secession, subversion, terrorism, and foreign interference, comes after a year of anti-government protests in the semi-autonomous region. China held its annual parliamentary gathering, known as 'The Two Sessions', at the Great Hall of the People from May 21-28th after being postponed at the height of the coronavirus outbreak in China earlier this year. (Photo by Kevin Frayer/Getty Images)

The United Kingdom will offer a path to citizenship to 3.5 million Hongkongers if China pushes ahead with its new national security law, Boris Johnson has said.

The policy commands broad support, both from the UK’s political parties and from a majority of voters, though in practice it’s unclear how many people will take the offer up, or whether, as the Home Office has been wont to do under successive administrations, the “path” to citizenship comes littered with unadvertised barriers.

The government’s hope, of course, is that the big offer acts as a deterrent to the national security law, though that it is, in practice, unlikely. The big question is how much of a change in government policy towards China in general there is – what are the actual real-world implications of the government’s attempts to find ways to reduce its reliance on China? Does it mean a change of approach as far as Huawei and 5G are concerned? Greater defence co-operation with Taiwan?

In practice, many of these decisions may be ones made for the government rather than by it. The Conservative Party’s China hawks feel validated by not only the Chinese state’s handling of the novel coronavirus but their recent moves to limit Hong Kong’s autonomy, and believe that their ranks – which almost inflicted the first government defeat of this parliament before the pandemic began – have been swelled, too. It’s that group which has the power to change the course of the British state as far as China is concerned.