18 May 2020

Why Covid-19 testing and tracing is the most urgent challenge for the UK

The only certain route out of lockdown is to reduce the level of community transmission.

Paramedics wearing PPE (personal protective equipment), including a face mask, gloves and an apron as a precautionary measure against COVID-19, return to their ambulance at Aintree University Hospital in Liverpool, north west England on May 14, 2020. - Britain on Thursday said it was in discussions with Swiss pharma giant Roche to mass purchase its coronavirus antibody test after scientists claimed it was "100 percent" accurate. "This test developed by Roche appears to be extremely reliable, it's got the green light from testers," health minister Edward Argar told the BBC on Thursday. (Photo by Oli SCARFF / AFP) (Photo by OLI SCARFF/AFP via Getty Images)

Will there be a Covid-19 vaccine by the end of the year? We don’t know. What are the long-term health effects of having the novel coronavirus on those who get it? We don’t know. Is long-term immunity from the disease even possible? We don’t know. Could the novel coronavirus vanish unexpectedly? We don’t know. Are schools significant vectors of infection? We don’t know.

What we do know is that the impact of school closures is uneven – it falls particularly heavily on the disadvantaged. So you can argue the case on schools either way – should you wait for more information or rush to reopen them as soon as is practicable? And what does as soon as is practicable mean in any case?

What we know is that the only certain way out of lockdown is to be able to reduce the rate of community transmission and to test, trace and isolate new cases – and getting capacity right for that challenge is more important or urgent than practically everything else.