16 April 2020

How likely is an extension to the Brexit negotiations?

With EU trade negotiations set to get back up and running next week, how likely is it that the UK will seek an extension to the transition period?

By George Grylls

European Union chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier (R) and the British Prime Minister's Europe adviser David Frost pose for a photograph at start of the first round of post-Brexit trade deal talks between the EU and the United Kingdom, in Brussels on March 2, 2020. (Photo by Olivier HOSLET / POOL / AFP) (Photo by OLIVIER HOSLET/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)

The UK government has to decide whether or not to extend the Brexit transition period by the 1st July.

At the moment, there is little to suggest that there will be an extension. Chief negotiators David Frost and Michel Barnier set out a timetable yesterday for talks to continue, beginning next week. Meanwhile briefings to the Spectator have sought to reassure Brexiteers that “the only way the transition period will be extended is if the EU requests it” (which Brussels will not do). Downing Street has categorically said it will neither seek nor accept an extension. Most importantly, the government would have to vote in the House of Commons to unpick its own amendment that forbids an extension — an unlikely and humiliating U-turn.