With dozens of Conservatives, the DUP and a sizeable majority of opposition MPs set to vote against the Withdrawal Agreement on Tuesday, Theresa May is destined for a defeat that could well exceed three figures.
As the parliamentary reckoning approaches, Downing Street’s focus is no longer on somehow conjuring a miraculous victory, but instead on salvaging a manageable – and not humiliatingly lopsided – defeat. Should it manage to do so, the thinking goes, it will signal to Brussels that Westminster’s approval is within touching distance should it offer concessions.
Getting to that point, however, will require Theresa May to convince not only her own MPs to change their mind, but also those on the Labour benches. The Prime Minister belatedly initiated conversations with Labour members in Leave constituencies and the trades unions last week. Though Jeremy Corbyn will whip his MPs to vote down the deal, several have signalled in recent days that they will break ranks and support it instead.
A complete list of those who have explicitly said they are likely to do so follows and for the sake of comprehensiveness also includes former Labour MPs who have resigned or been suspended from the party whip. Constituency estimates for the EU referendum are taken from Professor Chris Hanretty of Royal Holloway.
Jim Fitzpatrick
MP for Poplar and Limehouse (majority 27,712, estimated Remain vote 66 per cent)
Backed Remain in 2016
John Mann
MP for Bassetlaw (majority 4,852, estimated Leave vote 68 per cent)
Backed Leave in 2016
Kevin Barron
MP for Rother Valley (majority 3,882, estimated Leave vote 66 per cent)
Backed Remain in 2016
Frank Field
MP for Birkenhead (majority 25,541, estimated Leave vote 51 per cent)
Backed Leave in 2016
Now read our list of Conservative MPs who say they cannot support the Withdrawal Agreement – currently running at 100.
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