This should have been a slam dunk session for the Conservatives. In the month since parliament rose for the conference recess, the news for Labour has gone from bad to worse. A freebie scandal that just won’t go away. Plummeting poll ratings. Internal rows over Downing Street personnel that culminated this weekend in the departure of Sue Gray. With the added bonus of the outrage sparked by the handover of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius and the defection of Rosie Duffield who quit the Labour party last week to sit as an independent MP.
Rishi Sunak – still the official leader of the opposition until 2 November – was spoilt for choice. And he fluffed it.
There were attempts to shoehorn in references about Keir Starmer’s recent embarrassments. Sunak began by borrowing a joke from a lobby journalist and asking when the Prime Minister “first became a convert to fire and rehire” – a reference to Gray’s sudden demotion. Later on came a jibe about the Labour donor who has been at the heart of the recent freebie saga: “I don’t think even Lord Alli is buying any of that nonsense.”
They didn’t land – in part because Sunak failed to properly incorporate these pre-prepared lines into his questions, which were a vague jumble of topics. It was as if he couldn’t decide on a strategy. Beginning with Labour’s flagship employment rights package (due to be introduced to parliament tomorrow) was an error of judgement, as it enabled Starmer to herald “the biggest upgrade of workers’ rights in a generation” – an issue on which he has the full support of his backbenchers which the government is desperate to talk about.
Sunak was on firmer footing pressing Starmer on whether employers’ national insurance was included in the government’s manifesto pledge not to raise income tax, VAT or NIC, and on whether the borrowing rules set out by Rachel Reeves might be relaxed in the upcoming Budget. It’s the kind of technical questioning that can so often destabilise a prime minister at PMQs and lead to satisfying a “gotcha” moment when they fail to rule something out – indeed, Starmer avoided a direct answer in both cases. But the PM had the usual (boring) defence of not saying anything to pre-empt the Budget, pointing out that Sunak did the same when the roles were reversed. Sunak could have continued to hammer home the point, but chose at the last minute to swerve onto matters of national security in light of the warnings from the MI5 chief this week. It was an odd decision that derailed his momentum, and enabled Starmer to end the head-to-head on a statesmanlike note.
One thing we did get from this session was a change of tone from Labour. Starmer was falling over himself to be more positive, talking about investment pouring in since the election and painting a far rosier economic picture than he has in recent months. Taking the criticism of his doom and gloom narrative to heart or rolling the pitch for an announcement on borrowing in three weeks’ time – or both? Either way, it was hard to miss the vibe shift.
Even harder to miss, though, was how much damage it is doing the Tories that Sunak is still their main Commons representative. Which brings us back to Badenoch. This afternoon, Conservative MPs will vote for the final time this leadership contest, eliminating one last candidate and sending two potential options out for the members to assess. After yesterday’s surprise, James Cleverly looks certain to be in the final two, but there is just one vote separating Badenoch and former frontrunner Robert Jenrick.
Both have their strengths and weaknesses, but one key selling point for Badenoch is her confrontational attack dog style. Tory MPs watching Sunak’s lacklustre performance in despair will be taking note.
Interestingly, Starmer chose to take a swipe at Badenoch, flagging Labour’s achievements while the Tories have been “arguing about whether to scrap maternity pay” – a reference to her provocative interventions at Conference last week. Conservatives know she’s potentially a liability. But they also know there is no way the former business secretary would have allowed Starmer to coast through PMQs on a week like this.
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