How many Conservative MPs will rebel against the Brexit deal when it comes before the House of Commons? Steve Baker, the head of the European Research Group, was the subject of knowing laughter yesterday after he claimed that “at least 40” MPs would do so – just a few weeks ago the figure was 80.
The truth is that Baker was answering two different questions: the 80 refers to the number of potential rebels, the 40 to the figure Baker thinks that the Tory whips will be able to get it down to. Both numbers look optimistic to me but the important debate isn’t whether there are 80 or 40 or 20 Conservative MPs who will vote against the government – but whether there are more than seven, the number required to wipe out the government’s parliamentary majority and leave them relying on help from outside. And there definitely are more than seven Conservative MPs who will vote against a deal as it stands.
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