MPs have two routes to prevent a no-deal Brexit and one way to delay it: they can ratify the withdrawal agreement that has already been negotiated with the European Union, they can revoke Article 50 and bring the Brexit process to a halt, or they can legislate to force the government into an extension. Then – and this is the part that a lot of criticisms of the various groups opposed to no deal seems to forget – they have to ensure that the next parliament is at least as opposed to a no-deal Brexit as this one.
Yvette Cooper’s bill to seek an extension is the proof-of-concept behind that: it took a matter of days and can be pulled off in the remaining legislative time between Parliament returning from the summer recess and being sent off for the conference recess. (The same time could also be used to prevent prorogation on 11 September, though it is possible that the case making its way through the Scottish legal system might end up doing that anyway.)
- Hold an election after having gone back on their promise to leave by 31 October come what may – an election in which they will not only lose the voters they have written off to the Liberal Democrats in England and Wales and the SNP in Scotland, but will also lose votes to the Brexit party and struggle to win votes from Labour in small towns to compensate.
- Hold an election having gone for a no-deal Brexit, whether during or immediately before a general election. Something that a lot of people are neglecting is that you don’t even have to posit that no-deal Brexit is as bad as the central forecasts. Even a significantly better than expected no-deal Brexit is potentially an election-breaking event.
- Hold an election before 31 October and hope that a message of “don’t let Parliament stop Brexit” allows you to get a majority.
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