Will Theresa May’s deal with the European Union be defeated in the House of Commons again next week, if so how by how many votes, and will it matter? To take those questions in order: yes, your guess is as good as mine, and it’s far too early to tell.
Yes, May’s deal will be defeated. To lose any vote, all May needs to do is lose four more votes off her Conservative-DUP pile than she gains from the various opposition parties. She is not going to gain any votes from the SNP, TIG, Plaid Cymru or Caroline Lucas, the sole Green MP. She is not going to secure anything like the level of concession on the EU side necessary to reduce the government rebellion to within the area it would need to be for the 30 Labour MPs who are keen to vote for a deal sooner rather than later to matter.
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