The 2017 “Youthquake” general election was a “myth”, according to a recent statement by the British Election Study (BES) team. This was a bold claim and one that directly challenges the conventional wisdom. Responding quickly, the former YouGov president Peter Kellner warned that the BES evidence supporting the conclusion was rather thin. Kellner’s caveat was timely and correct, but things are actually even thinner than he said.
In 2015, pollsters were too likely to assume young people would vote, because the young people who participated in polls were more enthusiastic and engaged with politics than the average. As a result, during the 2017 election campaign, pollsters differed as to the importance they placed on the youth vote. YouGov, which focused on improving its sample of young people, turned out to be one of the most accurate in forecasting the result. With Labour winning university towns and inner city constituencies, commentators branded the party’s surge a “youthquake”.
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