What does Stephen Flynn want? The decision by the SNP’s Westminster leader to put his name forward as a candidate for Holyrood 2026 is some kind of answer.
Flynn is, according to his colleagues, and based on the evidence of his own actions, fiercely ambitious. No crime, that. The idea that he intends to take a seat in Edinburgh and sit quietly on the backbenches is not one that holds much water.
He has already performed a form of regicide, effectively taking out Ian Blackford as Westminster leader in a coup a couple of years ago. He did so against the advice of a number of his fellow MPs, which only added to his reputation for ruthlessness.
Flynn is among three of his party’s MPs to put their name down for a seat in Edinburgh – the others are the highly-rated foreign policy expert Stephen Gethins, and Dave Doogan. It’s not clear what kind of SNP they would be returning to.
The 2026 election is genuinely an open contest. Rachel Reeves’s Budget has irritated some Scots voters and Scottish Labour’s popularity has stuttered as a result. There will be no smooth advance to Bute House for Anas Sarwar unless the polls once again shift in Labour’s favour. Otherwise it is entirely possible John Swinney could remain as First Minister.
It’s also easy to see why Westminster has lost its appeal for the Nats. It was one thing for Flynn to be leading the third largest party, with a guaranteed slot at PMQs and regular appearances on the evening news, but July’s election ended that – the SNP lost 39 seats, leaving it with just nine. That lowered profile will not suit Flynn’s desire for the limelight.
It doesn’t pay to be too cynical, however. Whatever happens in 2026, there is a major job of reconstruction to be done on the Nats. If they stay in government, it would be as a smaller administration, certainly a minority one. The decent performance of Reform UK in current polls suggests a messy parliament of minorities, requiring deals to be done across the barricades. And the SNP will have been in power for two decades by then. Reinvention would be essential.
If the party finally returns to opposition, that reinvention becomes even more vital. The bruising past few years has shown that the Sturgeon era of experimental social policy, coupled with an incessant push for independence, is over. Something new is needed.
The current cabinet, which still mainly consists of time-served Sturgeon acolytes, is not going to deliver that. Swinney’s main mistake on taking office was that he didn’t clean out the stables and promote more of his party’s young talent into the top jobs. The same old faces have largely frustrated his efforts to shift the SNP back towards the political centre.
Whatever happens in 2026, it will be time – past time – for a generational shift in nationalist politics. Deputy First Minister Kate Forbes, who is still just 34, should be central to it. Jenny Gilruth, the promising Education Secretary, is 40. Smart, policy-minded politicians such as Tom Arthur and Ben Macpherson are in their late 30s. Flynn is 36.
These are all now experienced politicians, potentially with their best years ahead of them. In private, the more impressive SNP thinkers are openly critical of their government’s performance over the past decade or so, not just on its failure to advance the cause of independence, but on how a long era of rule has failed to improve Scotland’s economy and its public services. In fact, almost everything has got worse – “they have simply managed decline”, a senior civil servant said to me recently.
Frustration and even anger with the old guard is real. If the Nats lose the next election, Swinney will go, proving to have been the caretaker many suspected him of being. That will open up a particularly energetic leadership election.
Forbes will surely have another shot at the top job – possibly her last. Flynn will be, well, in like Flynn. Gilruth considered running last time round and should have earned the right to put herself forward. It will be a battle of the young guns, the prize being the right to turn the page on some difficult years and set a fresh course for the next decade.
Scotland is crying out for more policy and less politics. The nation has been undone by a decade of constitutional warfare and the neglect of difficult but necessary reforms. It’s interesting to note conditions at Westminster, where Keir Starmer and Kemi Badenoch appear to be offering a politics of ideas – neither is the traditional headline-obsessed politician. You may or may not agree with them, and both have strengths and weaknesses, but they are ruthlessly focused on turning around the country.
That is what Scotland needs from its leaders – and if they can’t do it now they will certainly have to after 2026. Flynn has shown he has the political smarts for leadership, but it’s not yet clear how much depth he has, and he should address this deficit in the months ahead. Forbes has a fine policy brain, but some colleagues doubt her political instincts. Does Gilruth have enough time to restore the reputation of Scottish education, even in some small ways, and bolter her credentials?
In or out of office, the SNP, like Scotland, needs reform. It will be up to this talented young generation to deliver at least one of these things, and, if they get lucky, perhaps both.
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