It’s no exaggeration to say that there’s an air of panic around Scottish Labour at the moment. The party didn’t expect to find itself falling behind the SNP with just 18 months to go until the next Holyrood election.
That really shouldn’t be happening when the governing party has been in office for 17 years – a duration that will have stretched to almost two decades by the time Scots go to the polls in May 2026. Regardless of that government’s performance – which has hardly been impressive – there should by now be an air of fatigue in the country and a desire for change.
And yet recent polls put the Nats ahead, and on course to remain the largest party at Holyrood. The reason seems pretty obvious – Keir Starmer and his team are not living up to expectations, and a growing number of Scots appear to be losing confidence that Labour are the answer on either side of the border.
This has led Anas Sarwar to do something major – this week he has promised that, as first minister, he would reinstate the universal winter fuel allowance (which Rachel Reeves has removed from all but the poorest pensioners in England). This is an expensive commitment, and a jarring break with his colleagues at Westminster. It shows just how worried Scottish Labour is by its loss of momentum.
If you strip out the political context, there’s nothing wrong with Sarwar opting for a distinctive path. Indeed, it’s healthy for Scotland’s unionist parties to show that they can pursue different agendas from the Westminster mothership. It certainly addresses the SNP jibe that Scottish Labour is little more than a “branch office” of its larger southern sibling.
But it is of course impossible to ignore the context. The announcement feels rushed because it is rushed. It feels slightly desperate because it is slightly desperate. It’s far from the ideal way to make policy.
Sarwar is attempting to make the removal of winter fuel payments an SNP problem, insisting that the party didn’t have to accept the UK government’s decision. The Labour leader is arguing that the benefit could have been treated as a devolved issue. “We could have taken a different approach in Scotland to support more households this year,” he said. “A UK Labour government is clearing up the mess left by a chaotic Tory government – here in Scotland, people are demanding a new direction and in 2026 we have the opportunity to deliver it with a Scottish Labour government.”
Ten out of 10 for chutzpah, Anas. But what exactly is it that Scots are demanding? The polls currently suggest that 2026 will deliver an unprecedented period of democratic chaos, where it will be very hard for any stable governing coalition to be formed. The most recent survey – which was commissioned by SNP cabinet minister Angus Robertson’s Progress Scotland company – puts Labour on course for just 34 of Holyrood’s 129 MSPs. The SNP would be the largest party, but would lose around 20 MSPs, falling from 64 to 42. The Conservatives would have 18, the Lib Dems 11, the Greens 10, and Nigel Farage’s Reform UK would have 14. In these circumstances, neither the pro-independence nor mainstream unionist parties would have the numbers to build a majority coalition.
The rise of Reform UK threatens to be a political earthquake in Scotland. The party could conceivably hold the balance of power at Holyrood, which would have been unthinkable until very recently. Almost more important, though, would be the psychological impact. Modern Scotland, or at least its political wing, prides itself on its progressive instincts, its rejection of Brexit, its liberal approach to immigration and a generous welfare state.
The truth, of course, is that the nation, like every other, is home to diverse views. It’s been too easy to forget that 38 per cent of Scots voted to leave the EU. A reasonably sizeable minority are scunnered with the mainstream parties, and find the Farage/Trump revolution attractive. They are ready to hit the big red button.
It’s possible both to be sceptical about the reasons behind Sarwar’s winter fuel announcement and also to understand why he’s done it. But it’s also possible that Scottish Labour and the other big parties are playing a game in which the rules have changed while they were looking the other way. I’m not at all convinced that Scotland’s progressives are ready for what could be about to hit them.
[See also: Scotland’s Trumpian turn]
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