The SNP has, in recent years, given us a fairly stark example of government not working. It would take too long to list each and every instance here, but they are all well enough known – from the attempted gender law reforms to the failed restrictions on coastal fishing rights to the half-baked approach to creating a national care service, this has been an administration that has given the big state a bad name.
John Swinney and Kate Forbes are trying to move the SNP away from this self-defeating adventurism, and have addressed some egregious cases of overreach. But too much damage has been done – mainstream Scotland is not the trusting soul it once was.
One doesn’t want to draw too much from Donald Trump’s victory in relation to Scotland, but there are signs around the edges that a similar dissatisfaction with the “elite” way of doing politics is starting to find favour.
A poll at the weekend found that Reform UK could win as many as 12 seats at Holyrood in the 2026 election. At the recent general election, when the party won four million votes across the UK, that included seven per cent of the Scottish vote – more than the Greens (not long ago a party of government). In Aberdeenshire North and Moray East, Reform UK secured around 5,500 votes, denying former Scottish Tory leader Douglas Ross the seat, which he lost by under 1,000 votes.
Remember, Scots voted overwhelmingly against Brexit and not so long ago blockaded Nigel Farage in an Edinburgh pub, forcing him to flee in the back of a van. He would, clearly, find a more hospitable welcome in certain parts of the nation these days (as would Trump himself – Scots are his biggest supporters in western Europe).
Even devolution’s heartiest supporters will admit that on certain important levels the Scottish Parliament has been a disappointment – the ailing condition of our public services is testimony to that. Holyrood really is, and certainly should be, a public services parliament. Instead, at least for the past decade or more, it has been a crucible of constitutional warfare and a cradle for policy that has too often amounted to invasive social engineering.
Scottish Labour insists, as it would, that this is a result of the governing party having the wrong goals and values. And there is undoubtedly something in this. However, Labour has its own problems. It had seemed to be cruising reasonably smoothly towards winning in 2026, but Rachel Reeves’ first Budget has put some bumps in the road. The latest polling suggests Scottish voters are concerned about the impact the Budget measures will have on their income, and that Labour’s support has dropped by seven points to 23 per cent. Psephologist John Curtice estimates that this would leave Anas Sarwar with just 29 MSPs, compared to 51 for Swinney.
There is concern among some key Labour people and other observers that the party still lacks depth to its policy agenda, as 2026 draws inexorably closer. There is so much for the next government to do, in terms of improving schools, repairing the NHS and pursuing economic growth, but all this will require sustained commitment to some tough choices. So far, Sarwar’s rhetoric has been right, but we’re still waiting for more substance.
The concern should be that if voters have had enough of the SNP, yet find Labour at Westminster unimpressive and Sarwar unconvincing, the Trumpite instinct may assert itself. Perhaps Russell Findlay, the new Scottish Tory leader, can win some over with his “common sense” agenda, but the Conservatives have their own problems among the electorate.
It may be, as some believe, that support for Reform UK will vanish like snow off a dyke as the election draws nearer and voters focus on the choices they have to make. Equally, that support could also rise. These are febrile times, and evidence from across the UK, the European continent and the wider West suggests people are in the mood to break things. Will Scotland prove wholly immune?
Swinney is a reasonable, decent and likeable man. Sarwar is dynamic and decent and likeable. Trump is none of those things. And yet he won.
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