Barring some unexpected twist, Russell Findlay will be the next leader of the Scottish Conservatives. His own camp believes this to be the case, as do his opponents.
But that will only be the beginning of Findlay’s troubles. The contest for the top job has become spectacularly toxic. The other contenders, Murdo Fraser and Megan Gallacher, have set their faces against the frontrunner. So too have a number of prominent Tory MSPs.
The question has been why. Findlay is well liked by his colleagues, his performance as justice spokesperson is valued, and his policies are unremarkable. But his candidacy has proved extraordinarily controversial.
At Holyrood magazine’s recent Politician of the Year awards, I found myself buttonholed by a number of angry Conservatives. They were at pains to say they had nothing against Findlay personally, yet are furious at the nature of his campaign.
It is the team around him that has raised their ire. This is described as the Tory “establishment”, the party bureaucracy that has run things behind the scenes as a variety of leaders have come and gone. There is a belief that two figures in particular have been playing dirty, and turned the contest from a fair fight into a messy scrap.
The first is David Bateman, a former Conservative director of communications. The second is John Lamont, the influential MP for Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk. Both are aiding Findlay, and both are accused of briefing against his opponents.
There is anger, too, towards the popular former leader Ruth Davidson, who has endorsed Findlay and publicly warned against possible moves to split the Scottish party from its UK parent. This is seen as an attack on Fraser, who lost to Davidson in an earlier leadership contest, and who has in the past championed such a breach. Fraser has been at pains to say that he isn’t proposing a split this time – his supporters claim Davidson’s intervention is an attempt to turn party members, who will decide the winner, against him.
Leadership races are often brutal, but few expected this Conservative contest to be quite so damaging. The consequence is that the winner will have to knit back together a parliamentary party in which some of the main figures are now barely on speaking terms.
If – probably when – Findlay takes the job, he will have to find a way to bring unity to the warring tribes. Fraser, his main rival, is a smart, experienced and capable politician. He has done well in the business brief and will be of more use, as Lyndon Johnson put it, inside the tent pissing out than outside pissing in.
Gallacher has brought a youthful energy to her post as deputy to outgoing leader Douglas Ross. Like Davidson, she is not your stereotypical Conservative, and has an appeal to voters who are not traditional Tories.
Liz Smith is one of the stars of the Conservative frontbench. She has held the finance and economy and business brief since 2021, and acquitted herself well. Smith is a policy heavyweight, rated by Findlay, yet she is not supporting him. He will have to bring her into the fold. The same is true of a variety of the party’s bigger hitters, who have been disillusioned by the tone of the campaign and the methods deployed by some of Findlay’s supporters.
The Conservatives only have 31 MSPs, so there is not huge strength in depth. If the divides created during this campaign are allowed to fester, not only will the quality of the front bench be diminished, but the parliamentary group will prove ungovernable.
This could be seen as a private problem for the Tories, were it not for the fact that they are likely to find themselves in a significant position following the 2026 Holyrood election. It will be a difficult campaign for the party, as Labour and the SNP go head to head for Bute House. It will also have to head off Nigel Farage’s Reform party, which polls suggest is growing in popularity.
Regardless of the outcome, though, the Tories could find themselves in a position of influence. There is a growing expectation that the election will result in a minority Labour-Lib Dem administration, which would require parliamentary support from the Conservatives to pass its budgets and legislation. This could allow the party to strike some deals on policy. It might choose to demand reforms to the tax and education systems as the price for its backing. There might also be conversations about the unsustainable “free tuition” when it comes to Scotland’s universities.
Such are the range of crises facing the nation, many of which have been exacerbated by a left-wing SNP administration that has neglected dealing with the basics of government, that there is a fundamental, technocratic job of work to be done by its successors. The Tories, who are more centrist in Scotland than at Westminster, should find this comfortable territory.
But the simple fact is that if they can’t even speak to one another, they can’t expect anyone else to listen to them.
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