The next few weeks offer the SNP its last, best chance. There are three key moments in quick succession. This weekend, the party has its conference in Edinburgh, where new First Minister John Swinney has the opportunity to set out a distinct vision for Scotland. Next week, Finance Secretary Shona Robison will make a statement to Holyrood where she will announce how the Scottish government is going to deal with the spending crisis that is upon it. Shortly after, the administration will lay out its Programme for Government (PfG), explaining in detail the policies it will pursue in the run up to the next Holyrood election.
These set pieces should combine to enable the Nats to show that they have, finally, got it – that after a turbulent few years in which they have lost substantial support among the electorate and a barrel-load of MPs, faced a police investigation, and shed a reputation for competence and trustworthiness, they have it in them to turn the corner. If they are to be competitive in 2026, this has to be the time to get things moving.
That the politics are hard and money is tight are not excuses – in fact, this is an opportunity. The ability to govern in a tough climate – to be judicious but firm, fair but determined, to make ruthless choices that are still explicable and coherent – is a chance to show you have the necessary chops for something more than easy spending or lavish indulgence or low-key bribery. Choosing is, after all, what government is about.
So, are the Nats about to seize the thistle? From what I’ve been told across various conversations, the answer is a resounding, depressing no. This in part stems from the make-up of Swinney’s Cabinet. His decision largely to stick with Sturgeon-era and Sturgeon-sympathetic ministers – other than bringing Kate Forbes back as his deputy – means there is a built-in majority of progressive ideologues around the table. These are the people who spent all the money and backed all the wheezes that got the government into such trouble. They have their hands steeped in all the big spending, the failed social engineering and the left-wing whimsy. They are finding it impossible to admit they were wrong. And they are desperately covering their backsides.
Had Swinney refreshed the ministerial pool when he took the top job in May, a new team would now be looking at the situation with a clearer and less compromised eye. Instead, I am told, the emergency spending statement and the PfG will be missed opportunities for a rethink. Senior sources say that while Swinney understands the urgent need for change, he lacks the authority and support to push tough measures and a different policy direction through Cabinet.
“Too many ministers are ideologues and just can’t get out of the rut,” a gloomy Nat told me about recent Cabinet discussions. “You think you have a chance of getting change through, and then the risk-averse, the fearful folk, push back and win. You’re just told things can’t change.”
The choice is between, on the one hand, “appeasing the party and maintaining unity”, and on the other “being electable”. Ministers are choosing the comfort of the former.
The nature of the emergency spending controls imposed by Robison earlier this month, when it became clear that a mix of public sector wage rises and devolved spending commitments had bust the Scottish budget, have not impressed. All government spending that isn’t legally or contractually obliged has been frozen – ministers aren’t even allowed to expense a packet of biscuits. “Those of us who have been around for a while have never seen anything like these spending controls. None of it is strategic or evidence-based,” said a source. “Look at the things that are being cut – they are piddly little things that hurt the wee guys, £100k for this community, £100k for that community. It’s a pathetic approach. We should be looking for big savings through efficiencies and modernisation in the major spending departments such as health that will also address present and future challenges. Another opportunity missed.”
Politics is winning out over policy, say insiders. The Cabinet is proving equally factional when it comes to the PfG. There will be no substantial announcements that get to grips with the declining education system, or reform an NHS that is close to falling over.
Again, I’m told that Swinney would like to be more radical and signal a more dramatic change of tack, but that “there is an entrenched majority in Cabinet against him who still want to follow the old ways.”
There will be some interesting policy within the Economy department, which is unsurprising since it is run by the dynamic Forbes. There will be an attempt to make private investment into the Scottish economy easier, through accelerated processes and planning decisions. There will be a single point of contact for potential investors rather than the tedious gauntlet of bureaucrats that currently awaits them. All public bodies involved in investment decisions will be expected to work together to get them over the line. This seems in line with the approach of Andy Burnham in Greater Manchester, which has worked well.
There will also be an attempt to boost Scottish manufacturing by helping start-ups, including the 500 tech companies that have been aided by government support in recent years, to start “building stuff”. “A lot of these companies, when they’ve reached the prototype stage, head for England or China to get it built. We want to make it attractive for them to stay in Scotland, and to work more easily and cheaply with the public sector,” says an economy department insider.
Overall, though, the mood is sombre and expectations are generally low. Senior civil servants tell me they are as frustrated as reform-minded ministers and aides by the air of stasis and the lack of energy. As one SNP source put it, “it seems like many ministers have had a look, decided it’s all too difficult, and decided just to accept the fate that awaits them in 2026.”
[See also: The SNP’s civil war over Israel]
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