What on earth is the Scottish Conservative Party going to look like once this leadership contest is over?
The way the candidates are behaving brings to mind the old joke about academic politics being so bitter because the stakes are so low. This is not a party in good shape, or with particularly great prospects, and yet the frenzied struggle for power suggests some enormous prize awaits the eventual winner. More likely, a smoking crater.
There have been resignations, leaks, negative briefings, and a ganging up by a handful of the contenders against the frontrunner, Russell Findlay. From the outside at least, the “Stop Findlay” campaign appears confused, over the top and perhaps even unhinged.
Did it have to be like this? Political parties are claustrophobic, insular things, where slights and allegiances and suspected plots can be blown out of all proportion. Megan Gallacher, the Scottish Tory deputy leader, has resigned her position due to reports that in July last year outgoing leader Douglas Ross said he favoured Findlay as his successor. He had asked Kathleen Robertson, who was standing as the Tories’ general election candidate in Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey, if she would step aside so he could challenge for the seat. There are suggestions that Ross said his “heart was in Westminster, not Holyrood”.
Ross has hardly covered himself in glory. His style of leadership was disliked by many colleagues, and when he eventually stood for a different constituency in July – a decision that led to his resignation as leader during the election campaign – he lost. Four of the candidates – Murdo Fraser, Brian Whittle, Liam Kerr and Jamie Greene – have now written to the party demanding “serious questions” be answered over the allegations before the contest is allowed to “proceed further”. “Plans and preferences for a replacement leader to take over the party upon his departure… are relevant to the transparency and fairness of the current leadership contest we are participating in,” they proclaimed.
It’s all rather hard to follow, or to understand, or to get particularly exercised about, even if one had the energy to do so. Does it amount to a plot to frustrate internal democracy? Events have certainly been handled badly by Ross. Does it suggest an attempt to have Findlay installed as the favourite of the party machine, such as it is? I have my doubts. I’ve had quite a few conversations over the years with party leaders where they have named the person they think will, and probably should, follow them in the job. It seems to me a standard and unremarkable thing to talk about.
Findlay’s camp say he is baffled by the bad blood, and feels bruised by the personalised nature of the campaign against him by people he actually likes. He is no master of the dark arts, is hard working and straightforward, a fresh, likeable face, and is running on a fairly traditional Conservative platform. As far as I can see, there isn’t much difference between his policy agenda and that of the other candidates.
Tories I speak to, on all sides of the contest, still expect him to win. What then, though? Would the others accept his victory graciously, or would this petty feud continue? Would they be willing to serve in his team? Murdo Fraser, a genial, principled and impressive politician and the strongest alternative to Findlay, is fighting an energetic and interesting campaign, but has got tangled up in all the “who said what, when” stuff.
This matters beyond the Conservative Party because Holyrood needs a strong right-of-centre voice. The Tories aside, Scottish politics is uniformly left, which isn’t always healthy for debate. Given we are now having serious conversations about public spending and public sector reform, the policy agenda is moving into areas that should play to their strengths.
It’s also the case that whatever electoral troubles they are likely to face in 2026, as Labour and the SNP go head to head, there is an opportunity to gain influence in the event of a unionist majority. A minority Labour/Lib Dem coalition seems the most likely outcome, which would then require Conservative support on the confidence and supply model. There will be deals to be done.
In this climate, a combining of the talents, rather than a war between them, makes the most sense. Especially with Nigel Farage’s Reform sniffing around. But the way the leadership campaign is being conducted, it looks like war for the foreseeable future.
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