The local elections on Thursday 1 May will be a serious test for Kemi Badenoch. The last time these council seats were contested was in 2021, around the time of the vaccine rollout and when Boris Johnson was at the helm of the Conservative Party. The results were a virtual repeat of the 2019 general election – a Conservative sweep. Back then, Keir Starmer’s leadership was in peril too. In 2025, the best the Tories can hope for is stemming as many losses as possible.
The story of these locals will be the emergence of multi-party Britain, as it’s the old Labour vs Conservative battlegrounds that Reform has in its sights.
Reform is snapping at the heels of the Conservatives on the east coast of England, and in the Midlands, and in Kent. Lancashire, once a clear Conservative vs Labour fight, is now three-way. Reform wants to win big in Burnley and Accrington, and may pull off a surprise in Morecambe and Lytham St Annes.
But out of all the contests taking place on 1 May – council seats, a by-election in Runcorn and Helsby – the mayoralty for the new Greater Lincolnshire Combined County Authority is perhaps, as my colleague Rachel Cunliffe wrote here, “the most consequential, not just for the residents of Lincolnshire, but for anyone watching the shifting dynamics of British politics.” This is the part of the country that most heavily voted Leave in 2016, and where we will best see if the momentum behind Reform can translate into material results. The Reform candidate Andrea Jenkyns lost her seat as a Conservative in the 2024 general election, then defected to Nigel Farage’s outfit. Dispirited Tories will be looking at her performance, wondering whether defection could work for them too. Reform, meanwhile, wants to demonstrate that it can take votes away from the Tories and Labour.
Labour has little to defend this year, and I wager the party even has room for growth. Many of its MPs represent these shire England seats (having taken them off Conservatives in 2024). But we do not know if they can convert this into a strong local government base yet. Labour is a few points below where it was in 2021. But the Conservatives are down almost 20 points on 2021. In first-past-the-post contests, that difference in support could grant Labour more than enough marginal wins to make net gains rather than losses on 1 May. This is far from guaranteed, but something to be mindful of.
In the Home Counties and the West Country, the Liberal Democrats are determined to back their parliamentary gains with local success. It’s here we will be able to see if the Conservatives under Badenoch can win back the so-called Blue Wall.
These elections could set the political narrative of the next four years. This is particularly true of the mayoral contest in Lincolnshire and in Runcorn and Helsby. Today, the political market is the most bearish it’s ever been. Who is the real right-wing choice against Starmer’s Labour? Reform leads the Conservatives by two points nationally. It has momentum. And Farage leads Badenoch on public preference for prime minister. But the stakes are high: to break the mould of politics in Britain, Reform needs to demonstrate it can make widespread council seat gains.
If Reform succeeds against Labour, either in the by-election or on councils, then fearful Labour MPs could tack right and demand Starmer do likewise. Blue Labour could become the norm, not the exception, in the factional fights over conference season. If Reform succeeds against the Tories, then Badenoch’s status as a non-entity leader will be confirmed. If Reform fails, then all the talk of Farage running the largest party come the next election would turn out to be little more than noise.
[See more: Fear and loathing in Liverpool]
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