Ahead of the election this summer, pollsters overstated enthusiasm for Labour by a margin over and above what we should typically expect in polling. Some of this can be attributed to the fact that Labour were on a sure-fire course for Number 10 (which led some projected Labour voters to stay at home, for example). But the Conservative vote was marginally understated too. It seems that polling is just as saturated with the overopinionated (or ideologically motivated) as the rest of media.
Some pollsters have moved on from their mistakes and published new surveys. And More In Common’s recent numbers do not look good for Labour (“down but not out” is becoming a frequent refrain in the early days of their premiership). The Tories are stable but low, and Reform is sitting with its numbers in the high-teens.
More In Common and BMG pin the Labour lead at four points ahead of the Conservatives, which is down from 10 at the election. To rely on just two pollsters in a sparsely covered field, though, is a risky endeavour. The Britain Elects poll tracker has the Labour lead at eight points.
Over one-in-ten of Labour's 2024 base are now unsure of sticking with the party. A few have drifted to the Greens, some to Reform, several are just apathetic. Meanwhile, Reform and Tory voters are more certain, and more likely to turn out to vote if an election were held today.
That doesn't mean the Conservatives are gaining much. Besides an apparent two per cent of the Labour base switching to blue, they're shedding one in ten of their supporters to Reform.
Labour's overwhelming majority and the enduring impotence of the Conservatives means that Labour's stability is not in question. There is - as yet - no enthusiasm building around the Conservatives. And not all those unhappy with Labour will look towards the Tories in four years time. Disaffected voters might go to Reform, the Greens and the Liberal Democrats. It has been said before, but one more time with force: multi-party politics is here in Britain and it's here for the foreseeable.
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