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5 November 2024

Trump or Harris, who will win? The New Statesman’s US election forecast

Our model predicts a very close contest.

By Ben Walker

Welcome to the New Statesman’s election forecast for the 2024 US election.

Our model has provided near daily projections of vote share estimates for each US state using a variety of poll and demographic data. It gives us a simple forecast: how likely is a Kamala Harris or Donald Trump victory at the polls?

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